[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
Panama and NW Colombia remains high. This will sustain nighttime
gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the
coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Seas are forecast to
peak at 9 to 11 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, then reaches southwestward to 02N25W. Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is flaring up south of
the trough from 00N to 06N between 00W and 16W. The ITCZ then
continues from 02N25W through 00N37W to 01N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03S to 06N between 32W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds dominate the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico with seas of 5-8 ft, increasing in height towards
the SE basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are off the western
Yucatan peninsula extending to the central Bay of Campeche where
seas of 5-7 ft are present. Light to gentle variable winds and
seas to 5 ft are elsewhere across the NW gulf waters. Otherwise,
deep layer dry air continue to support fair weather basin-wide.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will diminish
tonight across the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche as high pressure
continues to build into the Gulf. As the high moves E of the
area, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon
night into Tue ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf
Wed, with strong N winds possible behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

The sub-tropical ridge is prolonging a trade-wind regime for the
entire basin with mainly moderate to fresh winds across the
eastern half and SW portions of the basin. Strong NE to E winds
prevail in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia
being enhanced by regional climatological lower pressure. Seas
over these areas are between 5-7 ft, except 7-9 ft over the
regions with strongest winds. Otherwise, patches of low-level
moisture are supporting scattered to isolated showers over the NE
and SE Caribbean. Similar shower activity is in the Yucatan
channel due to the presence of a stationary front.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia
tonight and Sun night, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead,
gales are possible again off Colombia Tue and Wed nights as high
pressure builds north of the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to the central Bahamas, where it
transitions to a stationary front and continues to the NE Yucatan
peninsula. Strong to near-gale force winds and building seas
follow the front with seas of 8-13 ft affecting the waters N of
the central Bahamas, including the ESE Florida seaboard. Ahead of
the front, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are present with
seas to 6 ft in NE swell. Subtropical surface ridging dominates
the remainder central and eastern Atlantic waters supporting
moderate to fresh NE to E winds mainly E of 40W or E of a 1026 mb
center of high pressure located near 27N50W. Seas are in the 5-7
ft in this region while seas are up to 9 ft in the deep tropics in
fresh to strong trade winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will fully stall tonight
from 28N55W to Cuba overnight, then weaken and dissipate by Sun
night. It will be replaced by another cold front that will move
offshore NE Florida Sun night into Mon. This second cold front
will stall Tue night from 27N55W to the Windward Passage.

$$
Ramos
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