[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 31N76W SW
to the NW Caribbean near 19N85W at 2100 UTC will continue to
support strong to gale-force SW winds across the western
Atlantic and ahead of the front through tonight. This area will
cover the region N of 27N between 65W and the front. Behind the
front, winds will be fresh to strong towards the Florida coastal
waters. Currently, seas N of the Bahamas and W of 66W are in the
8-14 ft range and will gradually diminish to 10 ft by sunrise on
Mon.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these warnings.

NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel Dense Smoke: Dense smoke prevails
in the Gulf of Honduras and it is also being reported in the
Yucatan Channel. Middle to upper level winds from the SW are
dispersing this smoke across most of the NW Caribbean and the
Florida Straits. Visibility in these regions may be 3 nm or less.
Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing this area.
These conditions are expected to continue the next couple of days.

Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more
information.

Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and
central America in April and early May, during the regions
annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed
with the haze creates a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the
year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners,
especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras
and the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 06N22W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 01N29W to 01N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the offshore waters of Cote
d'Ivoire and Liberia, Africa. Widely scattered showers are
elsewhere from 03S to 05N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure associated with the passage of a cold front dominates
the eastern half of the basin. Moderate to fresh NW winds cover
most of the waters E of 90W, except for fresh to strong W winds
mostly along the coasts from Panama City to Cedar Key, Florida.
Seas are 8 to 9 ft in this region. Over the western half of the
basin, a 1014 mb high centered off the coast of Tampico, Mexico
is providing light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds in the far northeastern Gulf will
diminish tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front, and become centered over the eastern Gulf Mon through Wed.
Fresh winds will pulse across the Bay of Campeche each night
through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Smoke in the NW Caribbean.

A cold front is in the NW Caribbean extending from Playa Giron,
Cuba SW to 18N86W at 2100 UTC. This front is supporting a line of
heavy showers and thunderstorms ahead of it and reaching as far as
central Cuba coastal and offshore waters. Gust to gale force winds
are possible within this area of thunderstorms as well as low
visibility. In the SW Caribbean, an active E Pacific monsoon
trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
S of 13N. In terms of winds, moderate to fresh northerly winds
follow the front in the NW Caribbean while moderate to fresh
trades dominate the eastern half of the basin. Seas basin-wide are
in the 3-5 ft range, highest in the Yucatan Channel and SE
Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong W to NW winds offshore the Gulf
of Honduras will continue through tonight and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters. The
cold front will reach from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of
Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh
to strong winds are expected to pulse offshore of Colombia Mon
night and continue through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

Ahead of the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section,
surface ridging dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters with a
high pressure of 1021 mb centered near 29N55W and a pair of 1017
mb highs just east of a cold front that extends from 31N26W to
21N49W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front and
seas to 9 ft in northerly swell prevail in the region N of 27N
between 28W and 47W. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong NE wind
funnel between the NW coast of Africa and both the Canary and Cape
Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds dominate the
tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will gradually weaken and
dissipate on Tue. The next front, weaker in intensity, may move
across the northern waters by mid-week.

$$
Ramos
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