[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the
Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong to near-gale
force W to NW winds are over the eastern Gulf, with frequent
gusts to gale force within 60 nm of the coast from Louisiana to
central Florida. The front will shift SE of the Gulf today, with
winds diminishing through the day.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front described above
has entered the western Atlantic this morning, extending from
31N80W to 29N81W. Gale to strong gale-force S winds are observed
in a recent ASCAT pass across the western Atlantic, north of 25N
and west of 75W, and will prevail through early this evening.
Seas in these waters range from 8 to 12 ft.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these warnings.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of
Honduras is restricting visibility to 3 nm or less.
Observations from Roatan, La Ceiba, and Tela have all been
reporting low visibilities. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution if traversing this area. The smoke has been transported
over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. These conditions
are expected to continue through today.

Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more
information.

Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and
central America in April and early May, during the regions
annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed
with the haze creates a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the
year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners,
especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras
and the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W to 06N24W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N southward between 27W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see
the Special Features section above for more information.

A strong cold front extends from Naples, Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula.Outside of the strong to near-gale force W to NW winds
over the NE Gulf behind the front, moderate to fresh NW winds
are elsewhere across the basin. Seas range from 8 to 11 ft over
the eastern Gulf, 6 to 9 in the southwestern and central Gulf,
and 4 to 6 ft in the far northwest Gulf, with the exception of 2
to 4 ft in the coastal waters.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward,
pushing east of the basin today. Strong to near gale-force winds
in the eastern Gulf will diminish today. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front, and become centered over the eastern
Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras.

Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are observed in the Gulf of
Honduras,  while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are off the
coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trade winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in 4 to 6 ft range over the NW
Caribbean, as well as, off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela.
Elsewhere, seas are 2 to 4 ft

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds offshore eastern
Honduras will continue through today and transport dense smoke
from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean today, and reach from central
Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall
and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected
offshore of Colombia Mon night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

Ahead of the western Atlantic cold front, fresh to strong S
winds are observed in a recent scatterometer pass north of 23N
and W of 70W to the gale warning area. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft
in these waters roughly between 70W and 75W.

Further east, a cold front stretches across the central Atlantic
waters from 31N29W to 22N47W, where it transitions to a weak
surface trough that extends to 18N51W to 15N58W. Moderate to
locally fresh SW winds are observed ahead of the cold front to
24W, north of 30N. Behind the front to 50W, seas are in the 8 to
12 ft range in NW to N swell and 5 to 7 ft from 50W to 70W in NE
swell. Broad surface ridge extends SW from high pressure near
28N55W to the southern Bahamas and across the central Atlantic
south of 23N to the northeast coast of South America, allowing
for light to gentle winds north of 15N and gentle to moderate
trade winds elsewhere to prevail across the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale-force southerly winds
will prevail ahead of the western Atlantic front to the N of 28N
and W of 70W, as well as in the coastal waters S of 28N, through
early this evening. The front will then gradually weaken and
slow early this week. The next front, weaker in intensity, may
move across the northern waters by mid-week.

$$
Nepaul
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