[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early
next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected
immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters
Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the
eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up
to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
move off the US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds
developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of
75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun.
Winds will decrease below gale force late Sun or early Mon.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on these warnings.

Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of
Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less.
Observations from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been
reporting low visibilities today. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution if traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke has been
transported over the waters by fresh SE winds. Dense smoke and
reduced visibilities are expected to continue through the
weekend.

Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more
information.

Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and
central America in April and early May, during the regions
annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed
with the haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of
the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners,
especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras
and the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues SW from 04N19W to 03S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to
04N between 29W and 40W. Isolated moderate convection is also
observed along the monsoon trough and off the coast of Liberia.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

A weakening stationary front extends across the northern Gulf
from near the Mississippi River Delta to 28N92W to near
Galveston, Texas. A much stronger cold front currently stretches
across central Texas with a prefrontal squall line approaching
the coast. This system will bring numerous thunderstorms and
gale force winds to the Gulf Sat. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the NE Gulf from 26N to 29N between 84W and 88W.
Winds are generally moderate across the basin, from the SE in
the western Gulf and from the SW in the eastern Gulf. Winds are
fresh to strong in the Yucatan Channel and north of the
Peninsula. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the basin, except 5-
7 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early
next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected
immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters
Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the
eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by
agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf
and Bay of Campeche tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras.

Winds are generally moderate in the central and eastern
Caribbean from the east, except for an area of strong NE winds
along the coast of Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, strong SE
winds are observed in the Gulf of Honduras and surrounding
waters, gradually decreasing to moderate south of Cuba. Seas are
in the 3-5 ft range across the majority of the basin, likely
reaching 6 ft along the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW
Caribbean will continue through early Sun and transport dense
smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh
to locally strong winds are also expected offshore of Colombia
most of this week. High pressure will build across the western
Atlantic Sat night through Tue, leading to fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the southeast and south-central
Caribbean. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean
Sun morning, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern
Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic Ocean. Please see
the Special Features section for more information.

A broad ridge along 25N dominates the pattern in the western
Atlantic. Winds are moderate to fresh from the SW north of the
ridge, light within the ridge axis, and gentle to moderate from
the east south of the ridge. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the
western subtropical Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, a storm
force low is centered near 36N48W. An associated cold front
extends from 31N47W to 27N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed north of 29N between 40W and 50W. A recent
scatterometer pass found strong to near gale force SW winds
ahead of the front and fresh to strong WNW winds behind the
front. Seas are 8-12 ft north of 27N between 35W and 60W.
Southeast of the front, a high-pressure ridge dominates the
majority of the central and eastern basin with gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas. The gradient tightens along
the coast of Africa, generating fresh N-NE winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central
Atlantic will gradually build westward along 27N through the
weekend. Fresh southwesterly winds will prevail east of northern
Florida through tonight. Deepening low pressure northeast of
Bermuda will increase winds and generate large northerly swell
north of 27N and east of 60W through Sat. A strong cold front is
forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with strong
southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N
of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during
the day on Sun.

$$
Flynn
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