[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N16W southwestward to 03N24W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
the Equator from 30W to 40W. Large clusters of numerous strong
convection are seen south of the trough from the Equator to 09N
and east of 18W to inland West Africa. This activity is pushing
off the coast. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
south of the ITCZ between 21W-27W, and also within 60 nm of
05N26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between relatively weak high pressure over the
southern US and lower pressure over Mexico is allowing for
gentle to moderate east winds over the north-central and
NE Gulf as indicated by an overnight ASCAT data pass over those
waters. Light to gentle east to southeast winds are over the
remainder of the Gulf, except for gentle to moderate southeast
winds just off the norther tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
are 3-5 ft, except for lower seas of 2-4 ft in the SW and
southeastern Gulf and the central Gulf. Slightly lower
seas of 1-3 ft are in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east winds along and just
offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night
through Fri night. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu,
then reach from the NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin
to dissipate afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the
central Gulf on Sat. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds are
expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE waters. A
stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat,
and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by
Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with
winds possibly reaching to near gale-force in the far west-central
Gulf and in the far SW Gulf late Sat into Sun. By late Sun, the
front is forecast to extend from north-central Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula, with improving conditions across the most of
the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally
light to gentle easterly winds, except for moderate east-southeast
winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong northeast winds
are right offshore the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1-3
ft across the basin, except for 3-4 ft from 11N to 15N between
72W-76W and north of 15N between 64W-72W. A small northerly swell
is sending seas of 3-4 ft from the Atlantic through the Mona
and Anegada Passages.

A trough extends from the tropical Atlantic waters near 17N57W
southwestward to across Martinique and to near Isla de Margarita.
Satellite imagery shows scattered to locally broken clouds along
with high clouds that are streaming northeastward south of 16N and
east of about 68W. Isolated, to scattered at times, showers are
possible within this area of the Caribbean. The trough will
slowly move west-northwest through Thursday while it weakens.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will
expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel today and tonight, becoming
more sustained at fresh speeds through early on Sun. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast
coast of Honduras Wed night into early this weekend. Fresh to
strong northeast winds are forecast to pulse at night offshore
Colombia through the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively
quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds increase to
fresh speeds afterward across most of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from just offshore northeastern
Florida from near 31N80W westward to inland northern Florida near
the Georgia border. A surface trough is located to the southeast
of the front from near 30N76W southwestward to just to inland
South Florida near Palm Beach. Satellite imagery shows scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the southeast of the trough
from 25N to 27N between 72W-78W. A weak 1018 mb high center is to
the east-northeast of the trough near 30N63W.

The current gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds west of 60W, with light anticyclonic north of 27N
between 56W-70W as a result of 1018 mb high center. Seas over this
area are 3-5 ft. A swath of mostly moderate east winds is present
from 22N to 24N between 57W-72W. Seas with these winds are 5-6
ft. Gentle northeast to east winds are south of 22N between 51W
and the southeastern Bahamas. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft due
to a north swell.

Farther east, a weakening stationary front stretches from near
31N28W southwestward to 26N35W and to 21N53W, where it becomes a
decaying boundary to 21N55W and to 23N70W. Per latest ASCAT data
passes, moderate to fresh west to northwest winds are northwest of
the front, while moderate southwest winds are within 120 nm
southeast of the front. Northwest to north swell reaches into the
northern part of the area to near 28N and between 36W-56W. Seas
produced by this swell are 8-9 ft. The remainder of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the
eastern Atlantic, with a weak 1016 mb high center southeast of the
stationary front near 24N26W. The associated gradient is bringing
a light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow to the southeast of the
stationary to a line from 31N20W to 19N30W to 14N51W. Northeast to
east trade winds are of gentle to moderate speeds southeast of
this same line. Seas are 4-6 ft both northwest and southeast of
the said line.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will lift northward as a warm front tonight. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern
Florida beginning late this week in advance of an approaching cold
front. This next cold front is expected to approach the
southeastern U.S. coast Sat and Sat night, then push offshore to
the waters east of northeast Florida late Sun night. In the longer
term, an intensifying low pressure system over the central
Atlantic is expected to bring fresh to strong west to northwest
winds to the northeast part of the forecast waters Fri into early
Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 14 ft over this part of the
area late Fri into Sat.

$$
Aguirre
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