[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 01N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is approaching the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a
large complex of showers and thunderstorms over southern Texas
continues to affect the NW Gulf waters. These storms are
producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours,
reducing the visibility below 1 nm. Mariners are asked to navigate
with caution. On the eastern Gulf, a dissipating stationary front
is draped across central Florida, exiting near Cape Coral and
extending to 25N85W. No significant convection is associated with
this feature. Latest scatterometer data and surface observations
indicate that moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevails in the western
half of the Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the
southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the eastern Gulf will
dissipate by Mon. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected
through Mon night over most of the western and central Gulf as
the gradient tightens when a trough moves offshore Texas and NE
Mexico. Wind gusts to near gale-force may occur in and near
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected
over these same areas of the Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will
develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula
tonight and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern across the basin results in light to
gentle variable winds, except for moderate easterly breezes in the
Gulf of Honduras. Slight seas are prevalent across the Caribbean
waters, except for moderate seas in the Gulf of Honduras. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the Windward
Islands and the extreme SE Caribbean, while no significant deep
convection is occurring in the rest of the basin. Areas of haze
from agricultural fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in and
near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast
coast of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively
quiet marine conditions through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to 27N80W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are noted behind the boundary, along with seas of 3-6 ft. To
the SE, a broad surface trough is located north of the eastern
Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 25N and between 60W
and 72W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail west
of 55W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 24N53W, then a
surface trough continues to 24N69W to 28N75W. Latest satellite-
derived wind data show fresh to strong SW-W winds north of 24N and
between 30W and 55W. The wave heights in these waters are 7-12
ft, with the highest seas near 30N43W. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over
the eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front offshore NE Florida
will slowly move southeastward through late Mon and dissipate late
Tue. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to
develop offshore northern and central Florida beginning Wed as low
pressure develops off the southeastern U.S. coast.

$$
ERA
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