[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 08N12W
to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is noted
south of 04N and east of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is
also observed from 08N-14N between 44W-60W and also south of 10N
between 48W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W
west-southwestward to the Texas-Mexico border near 27N98W. A pre-
frontal trough is noted from 30N84W to 25N87W and the Yucatan-
forced diurnal trough is observed from 21N90W to 18N92W. Winds
are moderate or weaker across the Gulf of Mexico today with seas
1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 3-4 ft in the W Gulf. No significant
deep convection is noted. Areas of haze from agricultural fires
are present over the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will weaken as it reaches from the
Florida Big Bend region to South Texas by early this afternoon,
then dissipate from southwestern Florida to near the Texas-
Mexico border by early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds
are expected Sun through Mon night over most of the western and
central Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and
just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and
Tue.Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may
result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay
Campeche today. Mariners may experience reduced visibility over
these waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough east of the Bahamas has disrupted the normal
north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea, causing
the trades to drop to light or gentle breeze with seas 1-3 ft
across the entire Caribbean. No significant deep convection is
occurring today. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are
present over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean
waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through
the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is located east of the Bahamas from 26N64W to
27N73W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 20N-30N
between 58W-66W.  Winds north of the trough are easterly fresh
to strong breeze with seas 7-8 ft. To the northeast, a
dissipating cold front is located from 31N39W to 26N54W, while a
new cold front extends across our waters from 31N43W to 29N55W
to 31N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 NM
of the frontal boundaries. SW winds ahead of the dissipating
front are fresh to strong and the W winds behind the new cold
front are also fresh to strong. Seas are 7-11 ft in mixed wind
waves and NW swell. Elsewhere across our Atlantic waters, winds
are moderate or weaker and seas 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure is expected to
develop this morning east of the Bahamas. It will drift
southward through this evening then dissipate. A tight pressure
gradient will develop between high pressure to the north and the
low. The tightening pressure gradient will support fresh to
strong winds between Bermuda and the Bahamas through late
tonight, with seas building to 8 ft. Seas will subside late
tonight. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of
northeast Florida late this evening, then dissipate north of the
Bahamas by Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to
develop offshore northern and central Florida during the middle
of next week in advance of low pressure that will track
northeastward along the southeastern U.S. coast. Seas will
subside with these winds. Moderate north swell is forecast to
impact the northern waters east of 60W today. The swell will
shift east of 55W late Sun into Mon.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net