[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 12N15W
to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N30W, where it
intercepts a trough, then continues from 01N36W to 01S45W. A
large area of scattered moderate convection is evident from 04S
to 10N between 10W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Carolinas to eastern Texas,
allowing for moderate to fresh return flow over most of the
basin, with locally strong breezes west of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW Gulf, below 3 ft in
the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. There may be some
limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke
and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and
Central America.

For the forecast, high pressure along the southeastern U.S.
seaboard will continue to support moderate to fresh SE to S
return flow over the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal
trough forming over the Yucatan will promote strong E winds over
E Bay of Campeche tonight. A cold front that is expected to
enter the NW Gulf on Fri night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
will follow behind the front on Sat. By Sun morning, the
dissipating front will extend from southwestern Florida to near
the Texas- Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge
builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E
winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most of the western and
central Gulf. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America
result in smoke and haze over the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche
through at least Sat. Mariners may experience reduced visibility
over these waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending along 75W from eastern Cuba to the
central Bahamas is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of the
area. This pattern is allowing only light to gentle E breezes
over the Caribbean west of 80W, except for moderate to fresh
winds funneling close to the coast of Honduras. The pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean
east of 80W. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft east of 80W and mostly
2 to 4 ft west of 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will weaken
through Fri night. This will allow for fresh northeast to east
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean to become light and
variable winds and for fresh east trade winds over the Gulf of
Honduras to diminish slightly. Elsewhere, rather quiet marine
conditions can be expected through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough
reaching from 31N75W to over the northern Bahamas is supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 28N between
65W and 75W. An associated surface trough is analyzed along 75W
between eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas. The gradient
between the surface trough and the subtropical ridge north of the
area is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft
combined seas from 20N to 31N west of 65W. A recent satellite
scatterometer pass captured locally strong wind gusts in areas
of thunderstorm activity. Farther east, ridging centered by 1021
mb high pressure near 27N50W is supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas south of 15N and light
to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined seas north of 15N with
northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough along 75W is likely to
develop a low pressure center by Fri night east of the Bahamas
and drift southward through Sun while weakening. A tight
gradient will develop between high pressure to the north and the
low. This will increase the trade winds to fresh to strong
speeds between Bermuda and the Bahamas from Fri night through
late Sat night, along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft. Seas
subside late Sat night. A weak cold front is expected to move
off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night, then dissipate
north of the Bahamas by Mon. Moderate N swell is anticipated to
impact the northern waters east of 60W beginning on Sat.

$$
Mora
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