[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023

Correction to issuance time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N20W to 02N32W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 00N to 05N between 24W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending from the Carolinas to the Texas coast is
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas
over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3
to 5 ft combined seas over the eastern Gulf. There may be some
limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke
from agricultural fires over southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the weather pattern will continue to
force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of
Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan
will promote strong E winds over the SW Gulf tonight and Thu
night. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold
front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. N to NE winds
behind the front should be moderate to fresh on Sat. By Sun
morning, the dissipating front will extend from SW Florida to
near the Texas-Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge
builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E
winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident off Colombia between
high pressure over the Carolinas and troughing across central
Colombia. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft combined
seas are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and 1 to 3 ft
elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the Caribbean will
weaken over the next couple of days. This will allow the fresh to
strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh E
trades over the Gulf of Honduras to diminish by Fri. Elsewhere,
winds and seas will be quiescent through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from just west of Bermuda to 1014 mb
low pressure northeast of the central Bahamas near 26N73W, to
eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft combined
seas are noted west of the front, and moderate to fresh SE to S
winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas east of the front to 60W. An
upper trough is east of the front from over Bermuda to the
Windward Passage. This is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 25N to 27N between 62W and 65W. Farther west,
the subtropical ridge extends north of 20N between 25W and 60W.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to
6 ft combined seas south of 20N, and mostly light to gentle
breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas north of 20N east of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the southern portion of the front
should dissipate by Thu, while the northern portion should remain
nearly stationary until dissipating by Fri. A surface trough is
likely to form by Fri night and persist through Sun east of the
Bahamas. The trough should strengthen trades between Bermuda and
the Bahamas on Sat and Sun before weakening on Mon. A weak cold
front should move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night, but
dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Finally, moderate N swell
is anticipated to impact the N waters east of 60W beginning on
Sat.

$$
EC/CTM
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