[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N18W to 02N20W to 00N35W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 03N to 05N between 21W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from the Carolinas to the Texas coast. Buoy
and platform data indicate fresh SW winds over the far western
Gulf between the high pressure and a trough over northern Mexico.
Buoys are also indicating 5 to 7 ft over the western Gulf. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
There are minor limitations to visibility over the far southwest
Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the high pressure will slowly move eastward
through mid-week, leaving in place gentle to moderate E winds
across most of the Gulf, with fresh to locally strong winds in the
western Gulf at times. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to
enter the northwest Gulf Fri night. Fresh to strong N winds and
building seas are expected behind the front this weekend over the
central and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to Belize. Light
breezes and slight seas are evident north of the front, with
moderate winds and seas elsewhere. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across
much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists
southeast of Bermuda. A weak cold front that stretches from
eastern Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate tonight.
Easterly winds are expected to become fresh to locally strong
north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Wed into Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N69W to 1012 mb low pressure east of
the northern Bahamas near 27N75W then is stationary to central
Cuba. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds
within 90 nm to the northwest of the low off Abaco Islands. A
trough is east of the front along 65W south of 25N. Moderate to
fresh SE winds are evident east of the front to 55W. Combined
seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 55W. Farther east, the subtropical
ridge is anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered near 33N37W,
and cover the waters north of 20N east of 55W, supporting mostly
moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas south of 20N, and
light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas north of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will drift east into
tonight, with the southern part dissipating and the northern part
becoming stationary front around Bermuda to northeast of the
Bahamas into late week. Looking ahead, a strengthening Bermuda
High will introduce moderate to fresh easterly winds and higher
seas across the western Atlantic toward the weekend.

$$
Christensen
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