[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172139
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 13N16W and then extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N20W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 01N to 04N between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Chokoloskee, Florida to 23N90W, then
continues as a stationary front to near Tampico, Mexico. An
earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong
northerly winds over the easterly Gulf behind the front, but the
latest buoy observations show mainly moderate to fresh winds.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted elsewhere. Wave heights
are 5 to 7 ft over the eastern Gulf with 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. The
widespread organized convection from yesterday has largely ended,
as has large areas of smoke over the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of
Florida across northwestern Cuba to northern Yucatan Peninsula
late tonight. It should exit the Gulf on Tue, while the stationary
front will dissipate by Tue evening. Fresh to occasional strong
northerly winds across the east- central Gulf behind the front
will linger until later this evening. Afterward, fresh to strong
southeasterly return flow should develop over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon through Thu morning.
Looking ahead, a potential cold front could cause winds and seas
to increase once again at the northwestern Gulf this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A front moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida has
disrupted the normal pattern of the subtropical ridge supporting
fresh trade winds across the Caribbean. As a result, relatively
benign marine weather persist across the basin. Gentle to
moderate trade winds are noted in most areas, except for light
breezes over the northwest Caribbean and between Colombia and
Nicaragua. Combined wave heights are 3 to 5 ft over the eastern
and central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, maybe less off
southern Cuba. There is no significant convection over the water,
with a few sea breeze related thunderstorm over some of the larger
land masses.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists
southeast of Bermuda. The weakening cold front over the Gulf of
Mexico will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then gradually
dissipate at the far northwestern basin on Tue. Easterly winds are
expected to become fresh to locally strong north of Colombia and
at the Gulf of Honduras Wed through Thu nights.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N75W
to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm east of a pre-
frontal trough reaching from 31N73W to Grand Bahama Island.
Farther east, another stalling front is analyzed along 28N between
30W and 50W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas south of 20N, and gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 combined seas north of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
gradually sink southward and reach from 31N71W to the northwest
Bahamas Tue morning, then from 31N68W to northeastern Cuba Tue
night. Afterward, it should stall from near Bermuda to the
southeast Bahamas and dissipate during midweek. Looking ahead, a
strengthening Bermuda High will introduce moderate to fresh
easterly winds and higher seas across the western Atlantic toward
the weekend.

$$
Christensen
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