[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Gambia-Senegal
border and extends westward and southwest to 11N21W. No
significant convection is presently occurring along or near the
trough. The ITCZ is analyzed from near 03N23W to 05N34W, and
southwestward to 02N41W to 01N45W and to 01N50W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of
the ITCZ between 38W-43W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 44W-49W, and north of the ITCZ
within 60 nm of 04N49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface trough is over the north-central and west-
central Gulf, with its axis analyzed from near just southeastern
Louisiana southwestward to 26N93W and to near 20N95W. It is
being aided by a mid-latitude trough over Texas. Satellite
imagery continues to vividly show an impressive mesoscale
convective system (MCS) racing eastward across the eastern part
of the north-central Gulf waters and heading towards the NE
Gulf. The system consists of numerous thunderstorms north of 26N
between 83W-90W. The leading edge of the MCS is denoted by a
squall line that stretches from just southeast of Pensacola
southwestward to near 26N89W. Strong winds, with gusts likely
reaching severe criteria, frequent lightning and possible
waterspouts can be expected with this system as it moves across
the NE Gulf tonight. Mariners are recommended to use extreme
caution if navigating near the aforementioned thunderstorms. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms are west of the MCS
along and near the surface trough axis, primarily north of 27N
to inland Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are observed to the southwest of the MCS over the west-central
Gulf waters as well as along the coast of Mexico from just north
of Tampico to the vicinity of Brownsville, Texas.

Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, except for slightly higher
seas of 5-6 ft over the central and west-central Gulf waters.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging from southwest
Florida to the central Gulf is shifting eastward ahead of a cold
front moving into coastal Texas. The front will enter the
northwest Gulf tonight, move southeastward and reach from Tampa
Bay, Florida to Poza Rica, Mexico early Mon, before stalling and
dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula through mid-week. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and
building seas are likely behind the front over much of the
western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Gusty winds and
rough seas may accompany clusters of thunderstorms over the
north-central Gulf this evening, and again across the northern
Gulf ahead of the front overnight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient associated to a 1025 mb Bermuda high centered about
120 nm southeast of Bermuda continues to sustain easterly winds
across the entire basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and
seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Light to
gentle east to southeast winds and seas of 3-4 ft are present are
over the northwest part of the sea. Gentle to moderate northeast
to east winds along with seas of 5-7 ft seas remain elsewhere
over the basin.

For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will
sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Sun, except for fresh to strong winds
overnight in the south- central Caribbean off Colombia and the
Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid
week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front
approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may
increase again off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds
north of the region following the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front curves southwestward from near
31N40W southwestward to 25N48W to 21N54W to 21N69W. Latest ASCAT
data passes indicate moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
northwest and north of the front to near 26N. Winds then become
light to gentle north of 26N as they approach a 1025 mb high
center that is located near 31N63W, or about 120 nm southeast
of Bermuda. Seas are in the range of 5-7 ft within the area of
moderate to fresh winds and 4-6 ft within the area of light
to gentle winds. Scattered to broken low clouds with possible
isolated showers are along near the between 54W-69W. A surface
trough extends from the central Bahamas to east-central Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection moving eastward is east of the
trough to near 71W and south of 28N. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are west of the trough south of 27N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are over Florida south
of about 29N.

Latest ASCAT data passes south of 15N between 34W-61W, where seas
are 5-7 ft per latest available altimeter data passes over this
part of the Atlantic.

Farther east, gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds
along with seas of 5-7 ft are present from  20N to 26N between
50W and the Bahamas, and also from 04N to 20N between the Cabo
Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary Islands,
moderate to fresh north to northeast trade winds and seas
of 6-8 ft are north of 18N between the African coast and 25W.
Light to gentle NE to SE winds with seas of 5-7 ft seas in
moderate northerly swell remain over the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, a weak trough over the Bahamas will dissipate
this evening. A cold front will move offshore of northeast
Florida Sun night or early Mon morning, continue slowly to the
southeast, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
late Tue, before stalling and dissipating through mid week. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and
northeast Florida through mid-week.


$$
Aguirre
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