[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between a SW North Atlantic Ocean ridge and
its 30N68W 1022 mb high pressure center, and comparatively lower
pressure in NW Colombia. Expect strong to near gale-force winds
in the south central Caribbean Sea in general. Expect gale-force
winds off the coast of Colombia between 74.5W and 75.5W during
the next 9 hours or so. Expect the sea heights to build, and to
range from 8 feet to 11 feet.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from
05N15W, to 02N20W 01N28W, crossing the Equator along 29W, to
01S33W and 02S38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gale-force winds low pressure center of 24 hours ago, has
moved from the northern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, into
Mississippi. Moderate cyclonic wind flow is in the north central
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds are in the south central Gulf of
Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet
from 25N to 28N from Texas and Mexico eastward. The sea heights
have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

A cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night and
move across much of the Gulf, extending from Sarasota, FL to
Tampico, Mexico by early Mon. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and
building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western
and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in advance of the
front, there is a possibility of some severe thunderstorm squalls
with gusty winds over portions of the north-central and NE Gulf
late Sat afternoon through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning that was issued for the south central
Caribbean Sea.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery, from the coastal waters of Colombia,
northeastward, to the NE Caribbean Sea, to the southeast of Puerto
Rico. Shallow patches of moisture, that are embedded in the trade
wind flow, are supporting isolated rainshowers throughout the
area. Moderate to fresh NE winds cover much of the area. Gentle
winds have been in the areas that are from 17N northward between
Jamaica and NW Cuba.

Expect strong to near gale-force NE winds, and sea heights that
range from 6 feet to 9 feet, in the south central Caribbean
Sea, in general. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in
much of the rest of the area. An exception is for the sea heights
that range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea, from
Honduras northward.

The Atlantic Ocean ridge, located just N of the NE Caribbean,
will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and
central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong
in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to minimal gale force winds
are forecast tonight within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and
Sat night. Looking ahead, winds should diminish across the basin
early next week as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan
Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N46W, to 28N50W, to 23N57W. The
front becomes stationary at 23N57W, and it continues to 22N64W
24N70W 31N79W. Strong SE winds are from 28N northward from 75W
westward. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet from
the frontal boundary northward. An exception is for sea heights to
range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 23N to 25N between 65W and 67W.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 20N to the
frontal boundary between 60W and the Bahamas. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to
the E and SE of the front from 23N northward, and from the NW
Bahamas northward from 73W westward. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate is elsewhere within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the
rest of the frontal boundary.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N68W. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic wind flow is from the frontal boundary northward,
and from 20N northward from 70W westward. Gentle winds are within
200 nm to 500 nm to the south of the frontal boundary between 45W
and 64W.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 37N20W. A surface ridge
extends from the 1028 mb high pressure center, to 31N31W 28N39W
19N59W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 18N
northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 9 feet to
11 feet from 23N to 26N from 20W eastward. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 30W eastward.
Moderate NE winds in general cover much of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean. Some exceptions are for: fresh NE winds from 17N
to 26N between 29W and 40W; from 12N southward between 37W and
50W; and from 17N southward between 50W and 60W. Gentle NE winds
are also to the south of the line 21N20W 05N30W.

A cold front extends from 31N47W TO 24N57W, then continues as a
stationary front to 31N79W. Fresh to strong SE winds north of 28N
and west of 76W will prevail through tonight. The cold front will
drift SE through Fri while weakening. The next cold front should
move offshore northern Florida Sun night.

$$
MT
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