[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between surface
ridging in the SW N Atlantic waters associated with a high
pressure of 1022 mb located SW of Bermuda near 30N68W and lower
pressure in NW Colombia are supporting strong to near gale force
winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and Colombia adjacent waters. The
low pressure will briefly deepen this evening and tonight, which
will lead to the development of gale force winds within 60 nm of
the coast of Colombia continuing through early Fri morning. Seas
of 8 ft are forecast to build to 11 ft during this period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exit the W coast of Africa and enters the
Atlantic near 07N11W and continues to 02N19W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N19W and continues along 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N
and east of 19W and also south of 06N and between 32W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, the remnants of a former cold front extends from
the Florida Big Bend to 26N85W to 24N89W. A second surface trough
extends along coastal northern and central Florida with tail
reaching the Florida SW adjacent waters. Scattered showers are
across the SE gulf between Sarasota and the Florida Straits.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is prevalent across the basin,
which is supporting mainly light to gentle variable wind across
the E and NW gulf where altimeter data show seas of 3 to 6 ft. In
the SW gulf W of 94W winds are moderate from the SE while in the
eastern half of the Bay of Campeche winds have the same speed but
are from the N to NE.

For the forecast, the surface trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico
will weaken through tonight. Winds and seas offshore the western
Florida Panhandle and Alabama will continue to subside through
early this evening. A cold front is forecast to enter the western
Gulf Sat night and move across much of the Gulf, extending from
Sarasota, FL to Tampico, Mexico by early Mon. Fresh to strong N to
NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much
of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in
advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe
thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the north-
central and NE Gulf late Sat afternoon through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features Section above for details on a Gale
Warning for the south-central Caribbean waters.

Shallow patches of moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
supporting isolated showers in the E Gulf of Honduras and the SE
Caribbean. Surface ridging in the SW N Atlantic waters associated
with a high pressure of 1022 mb located SW of Bermuda near 30N68W
against lower pressure in NW Colombia are supporting moderate to
locally fresh trades in the E and great portions of the SW
Caribbean, except for strong to near gale force winds in the Gulf
of Venezuela and Colombia adjacent waters. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in
the central and SW Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge, located just N of the NE
Caribbean, will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to minimal
gale force winds are forecast tonight within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Looking ahead, winds should
diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening cold
front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 25N54W to 23N61W, then continues as a
stationary front to 24N71W. A warm front extends from 26.5N74W to
31N81.5W.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds north of 28N
and west of 76W will prevail through this evening. The cold front
will drift SE through early Fri while weakening. The next cold
front should move offshore northern Florida Sun night.

$$
Ramos
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