[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A 1007 mb low
pressure center is near 27N88W. A warm front extends
from the low pressure center, beyond SE Florida toward
Andros Island in the Bahamas. A cold front extends from
the low pressure center to 25N87W and 22N94W. The low
pressure center is forecast to move toward SW Alabama
during the next 24 hours. Expect gale-force winds, and
sea heights that range from 12 feet to 14 feet, from
28N to 29N between 85W and 88W, for the next 9 hours or
so. The marine conditions are expected to improve on
Thursday in the afternoon and evening, once the low
pressure center moves inland. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet, from 24N northward in
most areas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is mostly inland, from 30N
northward between the Florida Panhandle and
SE Louisiana. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from
24N northward from 94W eastward. Please, read the
latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Liberia near 07N12W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N17W, to 05N24W, and 04N30W. Another ITCZ is
along 04S18W 04S25W 02S32W 02S35W, crossing the Equator
along 37W, to 01N38W, and to 01N42W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
11N southward from 45W eastward. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 15N southward between 40W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for
details about the Gale Force Wind Warning, that was
issued for the north central and the northeastern
part of the Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere,
from 24N southward. Mostly moderate and some fresh winds
are within 360 nm to 490 nm of the center in the
W semicircle. Gentle winds are elsewhere from 90W
westward. Fresh to strong winds are within 260 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant. Moderate winds are from
260 nm to 360 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.

A gale 1007 mb low pres is near 27N88W, with a warm
front extending ESE to the southern tip of the Florida
Peninsula and a cold front extending to the SW to near
22N93W. Strong to gale force winds prevail in the
NE semicircle of the low. These winds will continue in
the NE and north-central Gulf through tonight as the
low moves N. Once the low moves inland on Thu, marine
conditions will improve by Thu evening. A cold front is
forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night, which
will cause winds and seas to increase Sun into Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb and for 500 mb, shows broad
anticyclonic wind flow from 80W eastward. Areas of low
level clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are in
the trade wind flow, throughout the entire Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds are within 160 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 72W and 77W. Fresh NE winds are
elsewhere within 270 nm of the coast of Colombia also
between 72W and 77W. Moderate NE winds are in the
remainder of the area that is from Jamaica southward
between 70W and 80W. Moderate NE winds are in the
eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle winds
have been in the western one-third of the area. The
sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 80W
eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to
4 feet from 80W westward.

The Atlantic ridge, located just N of the NE Caribbean,
will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except
for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, north
of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Moderate northerly
swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the
western Atlantic will continue spreading southward across
the Mona Passage and the southeastern basin through
Thu before dissipating by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N50W to 24N60W, 23N64W.
The front is stationary from 23N64W, to Andros Island
in the Bahamas. The front is warm from Andros Island
beyond SE Florida, and into the north central Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 60 nm on either side of
the cold front from 26N55W northeastward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the
frontal boundary northward. Isolated moderate is in
the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward
from 40W westward. The sea heights range from 7 feet
to 9 feet from the SE Bahamas northward between 65W
and 73W, and they range from 8 feet to 10 feet from
the central Bahamas northward and northwestward.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere
from the frontal boundary northward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb 38N24W high
pressure center, to 31N36W, 27N44W, to 21N61W.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet to the
north of the line that runs from the coast of Africa
along 20N, to 13N35W. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
Strong SE winds are from the frontal boundary northward
from 74W westward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is
near 31N69W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow
is elsewhere from the frontal boundary northward and
northwestward. Strong NE winds are within 180 nm on
either side of the line 31N14W 27N21W 25N28W 24N34W.
Moderate to fresh winds cover much of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean. The exceptions are gentle winds that
are within 420 nm to the south of the frontal boundary
between 49W and 58W, and gentle to moderate NE winds
from the ITCZ to 17N between 20W and 30W.

A cold front extends from 31N49W to near 22N64W, then
continues westward as a stationary front through the
central Bahamas. Fresh to strong E winds north of the
stationary front will prevail north of 26N and west of
73W through tonight. The front west of 75W will lift
northward tonight as a warm front. Rough seas north
of 25N and west of 72W will gradually subside
through Thu morning. The cold front will continue
moving slowly SE through Fri, while the stationary
front should weaken gradually. In response, winds
and seas should subside further Thu and Fri. The
next cold front should move offshore northern
Florida Sun night.

$$
mt/era
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net