[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2255 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W
to 01N31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed south of 05N and east of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida to 25N88W and
another weak trough is found along 91N, from 23N-28W. Satellite
imagery depict a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the north- central and NE Gulf of Mexico due to plenty of
tropical moisture and divergence aloft. Fresh to strong easterly
winds are found north of a line from the Florida Straits to the
coast of southern Louisiana. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, a broad surface trough reaches northwestward
from the Florida Keys to the northwestern Gulf, triggering
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly
winds with higher seas to its north will persist across the
northeastern Gulf, and near the Florida Keys through tonight. A
low pressure system is expected to form near the central Gulf
along the surface trough later tonight, then become better
organized and lift northward through Thu. Fresh to strong winds
and rough seas are expected at the north-central Gulf, and to
persist across the northeastern Gulf through Thu morning. Once the
low has moved inland, marine conditions at both locations will
improve by Thu afternoon. For the weekend, a cold front is
forecast to enter the western Gulf which will cause winds and seas
to increase.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorm activity over northern Colombia and NW
Venezuela are also affecting the nearshore waters, while a dry
environment dominates the rest of the Caribbean Sea, suppressing
the development of deep convection. Moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds are evident in the south-central and SE Caribbean,
along with seas of 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 21N
will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through
the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue at the
south-central basin, north of Colombia for the rest of this week,
and begin at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate northerly swell
related to a frontal boundary currently across the western
Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin on
Wed, and then spread southward into the southeastern basin
through Thu before dissipating by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N67W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to 24N75W, where it becomes a surface
trough that continues to the Florida Straits. A few showers are
seen near and north of these boundary. Strong easterly breezes are
present from 25N to 29N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are
10-13 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic behind the frontal
boundary experiences moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 8-10 ft
seas. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring
ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 29N and west of
53W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores. The tight pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa
support fresh to strong NE winds north of 22N and east of 35W,
with the strongest winds occurring north of 24N and east of 25W.
Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends southwestward from east of
Bermuda across 31N57W to near 23N67W, then continues westward as
a stationary front to the central Bahamas. Strong to locally near-
gale force NE to ENE winds north of the stationary front will
prevail north of 25N and west of 68W through tonight, then become
fresh to strong on Wed. Very rough seas north of 25N produced by
large NE swell should gradually subside through Wed. The cold
front will continue slowly moving eastward through Fri, while the
stationary front should gradually weaken and might dissipate on
Fri. In response, both winds and seas should subside further Thu
and Fri.

$$
DELGADO
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