[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

A stationary front is along 31N63W 27N70W, across the northern
part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, to 25N80W. A surface trough
continues from 25N80W, through the Straits of Florida, into the
south central Gulf of Mexico. A second surface trough is from 180
nm to 240 nm to the SSE of the stationary front. The sea heights
range from 12 feet to 16 feet from the stationary front
northwestward. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from the
stationary front northwestward. The sea heights will go down a
bit. The wind speeds will slow down also. Expect strong NE winds,
and the sea heights to range from 10 feet to 12 feet from tonight
until Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Expect fresh to strong
winds, and the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 9 feet, to the
northwest of the stationary front, during the day on Wednesday.
The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for Bermuda, at 10/1200 UTC,
was 2.35. The 24-hour rainfall total for Bermuda, at 11/0000 UTC,
was 2.19 inches. Current precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate, and locally strong, is to the northwest of the
line that runs from 31N50W to the Mona Passage. The sea heights
have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet in the Bahamas, and from 3
feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 70W westward away from the Bahamas
and to the south of the stationary front. The sea heights have
been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet from 20N to the surface trough
between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong southerly winds have been
from 24N northward between 60W and 65W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW Sierra Leone,
to 02N19W, and to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W, to
02N30W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from
08N southward from 30W eastward. One surface trough is from the
Equator along 32W to 05N38W. A second surface trough is along
45W/47W from 01N to 09N. A third surface trough is along the
Equator at 46W to 03N51W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 11N southward between 30W and 52W, and in
the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An east-to-west oriented surface trough is along 23N/24N. The
trough is at the southwestern end of the Atlantic Ocean stationary
front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the western part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico northward to the border of Mexico with South Texas
between 90W and 100W, including in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from the surface trough northward
from 90W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from the surface trough northward
between 86W and 94W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere, on
the either side of the trough. The sea heights range from: 4 feet
to 7 feet from the surface trough northward from 90W eastward; 3
feet to 5 feet from the surface trough northward from 90W
westward; 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

A surface trough reaches westward from the Florida Keys to the
south-central Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds with higher
seas to its north will persist across the northeastern and east-
central Gulf, and near the Florida Keys through Tue. A low
pressure system is expected to develop across the northern Gulf on
Tue night, then become better organized and lift northward
through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected in
the north-central Gulf, and to persist across the northeastern
Gulf Tue night through Thu morning. The marine conditions in both
locations will improve by Thu afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows a trough roughly along 80W from
Cuba to Panama. Anticyclonic wind flow is on either side of the
trough. The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows broad
anticyclonic wind flow from 80W eastward. A surface ridge is along
17N80W beyond 20N65W in the Atlantic Ocean to the northeast of
Puerto Rico.

Some strong NE winds are within 100 nm of the coasts of Venezuela
and Colombia from 70W westward. Fresh NE winds are within 240 nm
of the same coastal areas from 70W westward. Moderate NE winds are
in the remainder of the areas that are within 360 nm of the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia from 70W westward. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea.
Gentle or slower winds are in the remainder of the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from: 4 feet to 6 feet in the
southern two-thirds of the central Caribbean Sea; from 1 foot to
3 feet in the NW section; 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-
third.

The Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N will sustain
a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through the end of
the week. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue in the
south-central basin, north of Colombia most of the week, and
begin in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate northerly swell
related to a frontal boundary currently across the western
Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin by
Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb 36N25W high pressure center,
to 33N41W, through 27N49W 22N57W to 20N65W. Broad moderate to
fresh anticyclonic surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from the ITCZ northward from 50W eastward. Some exceptions are:
mostly strong to some near gale-force NE winds are from 24N
northward from 20W eastward, including in the Canary Islands;
fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward between 20W and
30W.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 18N northward
from 35W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere from 50W eastward.

A stationary front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda
across the northwest Bahamas to near the Florida Keys. Strong to
near-gale force NE to ENE winds behind this front will prevail
north of 24N and west of 66W through tonight. These winds should
decrease to between fresh and strong on Tue. Very rough seas
produced by large NE swell behind the front north of 26N should
gradually subside through Tue evening. The front will reach from
31N58W to the Florida Straits Tue morning. Afterward, the
northeastern portion will continue moving eastward as a cold front
while weaken through Thu. The southwestern portion will stall
across the Florida Straits and near the central Bahamas, and
gradually dissipate through Wed night. In response, both winds and
seas should subside further by Wed night.

$$
mt/era
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