[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2305 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N63W to the
Florida Straits and will continue to sink southeastward over the
next few days, with wind gusts to gale force expected across the
coastal Florida waters N of 27N and W of 80W through tonight.
Strong to near-gale NE winds and high seas will continue to spread
across the waters N of 24N and W of 65W through Tue. Seas are
peaking near 21 ft, mainly along 31N and W of 72W. Maximum sea
heights will begin to abate today, with NE swell remaining above
12 ft through Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along
23N by the middle of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W
to 00N28W to 01N36W. A surface trough is along 45W, from 01S to
07N. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found south of
05N and between 21W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the tail end of a cold front in the
Florida Straits to 24N92W. A few showers are seen near the
boundary but no deep convection. The remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico is dominated by a broad high pressure system over the
eastern United States. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted
in the NE Gulf, mainly north of 27N and east of 91W. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough reaches westward from the
Florida Keys to the central Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds
with higher seas to its north will persist across the northeastern
and east-central Gulf, and near the Florida Keys through Tue. A
modest low pressure system is expected to develop near the western
end of this trough on Tue night, then become better organized and
lift northward through Thu. This process should cause the trough
to transition into a warm front, and then move inland over
southern Louisiana together with the low on Thu night or Fri
morning. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
expected at the north-central Gulf, and to persist across the
northeastern Gulf Tue night through Thu morning. Marine conditions
at both locations will improve by Thu afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A fairly dry weather pattern dominates the Caribbean Sea, only
allowing for pockets of shallow moisture traveling with the trades
to produce light, isolated showers. A weak high pressure regime
sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft
in the south-central and SE Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 22N
will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through
the end of the week. Fresh to strong easterly trades will
continue at the south-central basin, north of Colombia most of the
week, and begin at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate
northerly swell related to a strong cold front currently across
the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern
basin by Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida
Straits. A pre-frontal trough is seen north of Hispaniola. The
combination of these systems is supporting showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the frontal boundary, but primarily north of
25N and between 57W and 65W. Fresh to near gale-force NE winds are
present behind the frontal boundary. Seas following the cold front
are 10-16 ft, with the highest seas occurring northeast of the NW
Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6-10 ft are
evident ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 26N and
between 57W and 63W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail in the rest of the western tropical Atlantic.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the
eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 40W, with the strongest
winds occurring north of 24N and east of 25W. These winds are
generating 8-10 ft seas in the area. In the rest of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends southwestward from
southeast of Bermuda across the northwest Bahamas to near the
Florida Keys. Strong to near-gale force NE to ENE winds behind
this front will prevail north of 24N and west of 66W through
tonight. These winds should decrease to between fresh and strong
on Tue. Very rough seas produced by large NE swell behind the
front north of 26N should gradually subside this evening through
Tue evening. The front will reach from 31N58W to the Florida
Straits Tue morning. Afterward, the northeastern portion will
continue moving eastward as a cold front while weaken through Thu.
The southwestern portion will stall across the Florida Straits
and near the central Bahamas, and gradually dissipate through Wed
night. In response, both winds and seas should subside further by
Wed night.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net