[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong
cold front has entered the western Atlantic and will sink across
the waters of NE Florida today. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to central Florida tonight, and from 31N62W to S Florida
by Mon evening. A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE
winds and high seas will build behind the front today, spreading
across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. As the front
progresses SE, these conditions will extend westward to the east
coast of Florida from this afternoon through Mon. The Ocean
Prediction Center has issued a storm-force wind warning for the
conditions north of 31N during this event. The sea heights are
expected to reach 20-22 feet near 31N77W on tonight. The NE swell
will continue to produce sea heights of 12 ft and greater through
Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the
middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N30W and to
00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from S of 07N
between 24W and 45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection has
emerged off the west coast of Africa from 03N to 07.5N, east of
16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to the north-central Gulf.
The tail end of the boundary, between 85W and 90W, is beginning
to stall and lift north. A line of showers and thunderstorms
along and ahead of the front has been diminishing in the past
few hours and is now mainly east of 85W. Fresh to strong NE
winds are behind the front with 3 to 5 ft seas, spreading over
most of the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. Recent buoy
observations recorded seas up to 6 ft near the Florida Big Bend
area. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from about 120 nm E of
Brownsville, TX, to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted between 23N and 27N in the
western Gulf on either side of the trough. Fresh NE winds
continue in the western Gulf, shifting to more northerly on the
western side of the trough.

For the forecast, the front will slowly move SE over the central
and eastern Gulf through tonight while weakening. Fresh to
locally strong NE-E winds are expected north of the front in the
N-central and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres is expected to
develop along the remnants of the front in the central Gulf Tue,
deepen through Wed night, then lift northward and inland on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area in the
subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia
is supporting moderate to fresh trades S of 18N and E of 77W,
along with seas of 4-6 ft, reaching up to 7 ft just north of the
ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds and 3-5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pres centered near 31N45W
extends SW to the SE Bahamas, and will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across the basin E of 80W through the next several
days, pulsing to strong at night S of 13N. Fresh trades and seas
around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlc will subside through tonight.
Weak high pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through
mid-week ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the
SW N Atlantic, with the front stalling along 23N by Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A cold front has entered the far SW N Atlantic waters extending
from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds follow the front,
where seas have built to 12 to 15 ft N of 29N. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are within 180 nm ahead of the boundary, north
of the northern Bahamas. An elongated trough extending from the
northern Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N79W is being absorbed
by the front, and the associated weather has mostly cleared over
the last 12 hours.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic basin. A
ridge extends from the 1027 mb high pressure center near 31N46W
to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trades are noted west of 30W,
shifting to SE-S over waters between 60W and 70W, with 5 to 7 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate S winds are between 70W and 75W, ahead
of the incoming cold front with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, a
trough extends from 31N20W to 23N20W. Strong NNE winds are W of
the trough to 30W, where seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise, winds are
generally moderate to fresh from the NE, and seas are in the 5-8
ft range in the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, High pressure centered across the
central Atlc will shift NE through mid-week as the strong cold
front moves over the western Atlantic region. The front will
move SE, reaching from near Bermuda to Palm Beach, Florida
tonight, and from 31N63W to the Upper Florida Keys by Mon
evening. The gale-force winds will spread SE behind the front,
reaching to N of 28N and W of 70W early tonight, before
diminishing below gale-force Mon morning. Meanwhile, storm-force
winds will occur N of 31N. Very large NE swell producing seas to
around 20 ft along 31N will spread into the regional waters
behind the front this afternoon through Tue. The front is
expected to stall and gradually weaken along 23N/24N by mid-week.

$$
Mora
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