[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to
move offshore of the SE U.S. and NE Florida early on Sun and
progress SE, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun
evening, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Mon evening. A large
area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds, and significant seas
will build behind the front by Sun evening, spreading across the
waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. OPC has issued a storm
force wind warning for conditions north of 31N during this
event. Seas are currently expected to reach 20 ft near 31N75W
Sun night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to
02N30W to 02S43W. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of stationary fronts extend from a 1014 mb low pressure
in the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N96W. The first extends towards
New Orleans, Louisiana and is supporting scattered thunderstorms
east of the front, from 26N to 29N between 91W and 95W. The
second stationary boundary extends south towards Veracruz,
Mexico with limited convection. Winds are fresh to strong from
the NE to N between these fronts and the Texas and Mexican
coasts. A surface trough is analyzed along the Yucatan
Peninsula, where winds are fresh to strong. Fresh easterly winds
are noted in the Straits of Florida. Winds are gentle to
moderate elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the western Gulf, 3 to
5 ft in the central Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will move slowly eastward over the
western half of the Gulf through Sun. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are expected to the W of the low and front
through tonight, except persisting off Veracruz through Sat
evening. Another low pressure, expected to develop just off the
SE of United States Sat night, will allow a cold front to move
southward over Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally
strong E winds are expected behind the front in the N-central
and NE Gulf. Low pressure may develop along the remnants of the
front in the N central Gulf Tue and deepen through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms extend south from Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands to 15N. Recent scatterometer data
confirmed the general pattern of strong trade winds in the
eastern Caribbean, fresh trades in the central Caribbean, and
moderate trades in the NW Caribbean. A few local exceptions are
in the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, Gulf of Honduras and off
the coast of Colombia, where winds are fresh to strong. Seas are
6 to 8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in the central
Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a broad inverted trough from just NW of the
Mona Passage to across the eastern Dominican Republic to near
16N69W is accompanied by active weather. Fresh to strong winds
in the S-central will diminish tonight. Similar winds in the
eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic supported by the
trough and high pressure N of the area will linger through Sat
morning before diminishing as the trough shifts W and weakens.
Weak high pressure will prevail N of the for the end of the
weekend through next Wed ahead of a strong cold front well to
the N.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A broad surface trough extends from the Dominican Republic near
20N71W to 31N65W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
east of the trough from 19N to 27N between 63W and 70W. West of
the trough axis, winds are moderate from the E. East of the
trough axis, winds are fresh from the SE. Seas are generally in
the 6 to 8 ft range in the western subtropical Atlantic, except
for 4 to 6 ft west of 75W. In the central Atlantic, a relatively
strong pressure gradient is supporting enhanced easterly trades
winds south of 20N between 50W and 65W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in
this area. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N to NE
winds dominate with 6 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast, a broad inverted trough accompanied by very
active weather from near 31N64W to 19N69W will shift W and
weaken through Sun, reaching the central Bahamas. Atlantic high
pressure is draped across the waters N of the trough, along 32N,
and is producing fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft E of
the trough. Winds and seas across the region will gradually
diminish tonight through Sun as high pressure also weakens. A
strong cold front is expected to move offshore of the SE U.S.
and NE Florida early on Sun, bringing gale force winds and high
seas. The front may stall along 25N/26N by the middle of next
week while conditions gradually improve.

$$
Flynn
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