[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to move
offshore of the SE U.S. and NE Florida early on Sun and sink SE
across NW portions, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida
Sun evening, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Mon evening. A large
area of strong to minimal gale-force N to NE winds, and significant
NE swell will build into the area behind the front, spreading
across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. Seas will peak
near 21 ft Sun night near 31N75W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 01N30W to
01S43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon
trough and ITCZ east of 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1019 mb low pressure in the
southern Louisiana coast to a 1016 mb low pressure near 26N97W and
continues southward to coast of Veracruz near 18N95W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted north of 25N and between 90W and 95W.
A 1027 mb high pressure system east of Bermuda extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are seen
west of the frontal boundary. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present in the Florida Straits
and off northern Yucatan, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere
in the basin.

For the forecast, a weak cold front lingers across the N and W Gulf,
extending from the Florida Panhandle, across SE Louisiana, to
weak low pressure just offshore of Brownsville, TX then extends
southward to just S of Veracruz, Mexico. The front will move
slowly eastward over the western half of the Gulf trough Sun.
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected to the W of
the low and front through tonight, except persisting off
Veracruz through Sat. Another low pressure, expected to develop
just off the SE of United States Sat night, will allow a cold
front to move southward over Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun.
Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind the front in
the NE Gulf. Low pres may develop along the remnants of the front
in the N central Gulf Tue and deepen through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are seen in the SW Caribbean Sea and also in the
waters south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. No deep
convection is noted elsewhere in the basin. Fresh to locally
strong easterly trade winds are evident in the south-central and
SE Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent in the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh NE-E winds are also
found in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. In the rest of the Caribbean, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a broad inverted trough extends from the Atlantic
near 29N64W across the eastern Dominican Republic to near 17N69W,
and is accompanied by active weather. Atlantic high pressure is
drapped to the N of the trough along 31N-32N. Fresh to strong
trade winds are found across the far NE and SE Caribbean to the E
of the trough, and will become mainly strong tonight through Sat
morning before diminishing. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish elsewhere through Sun as the trough shifts W and weakens,
and reaches the central Bahamas. Weak high pressure will prevail
N of the area Mon through Wed as a strong cold front moves across
much of Florida and the regional Atlantic N of 26N.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the waters between
Bermuda and the eastern Greater Antilles. A surface trough extends
from 31N63W to eastern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of 26N and between 60W and 70W. The pressure
gradient between the trough, the deep tropics and a 1027 mb high
pressure system near 33N55W support fresh to strong easterly winds
south of 27N and between 42W and 66W. Seas in these waters are
7-10 ft. Farther north, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds
are found north of 28N and between 30W and 45W. Wave heights in
the area described are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a broad inverted trough accompanied by very active
weather extends from near 29N64W to 22N67W then across the eastern
Dominican Republic and into the N Caribbean. The trough will
shift W and weaken through Sun, reaching the central Bahamas.
Atlantic high pressure is drapped across the N of the trough,
along 31N-32N, and is producing a strong winds and seas to 10 ft E
of the trough. Winds and seas across the region will gradually
diminish tonight through Sun as high pressure also weakens.

$$
DELGADO
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