[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 02S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from the equator to 08N between
13W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak low pressure is centered over the NW Gulf, with a
stationary boundary extending NE to near Lake Charles, Louisiana
and a cold front extending south to near Tuxpan, Mexico.
Numerous thunderstorms are observed NW of these boundaries in
the coastal waters of Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico. Fresh to
strong N winds and 6-8 ft seas are found west of the cold front,
with fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas north of the stationary
boundary. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula
and is supporting fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas in the
area.  Easterly winds are fresh in the Florida Straits, building
4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere with 3-5 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the weak low pressure over the NW Gulf and an
attendant fronts will move slowly eastward over the western half
of the Gulf trough Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds
are expected in the wake of the low and front through at least
Fri. Another low pressure, forecast to develop just off the SE
of United States will allow a cold front to move southward over
Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds
are expected behind the front in the NE Gulf. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche this evening into early Fri morning,
and again Fri evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE
to E winds through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola,
over the Gulf of Honduras, and over the south central Caribbean.
Otherwise, easterly trade winds are fresh over the eastern
Caribbean and moderate over the remainder of the NW Caribbean.
Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 6-8 ft
from the lee of the Windward Passage to NE Jamaica and 4-6 ft
elsewhere. A few thunderstorms are noted in the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge
extending across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage,
in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the lee of eastern Cuba will
diminish Fri. Expect increasing winds and building seas across
the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sat as a
broad inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic just
north of the islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 29N61W to 22N63W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 18N to 27N between 56W and
70W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong E winds
on either side of the trough where seas are 6-8 ft. Otherwise, a
tighter than usual pressure gradient is supporting fresh to
strong trades south of 25N and west of 45W with 7-9 ft seas. NE
winds are moderate to fresh elsewhere, with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge across the
western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos Islands tonight. A broad
inverted trough, with axis currently near 63W, will shift
westward through Sun, reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This
feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through
the end of the week as it interacts with high pressure north of
the area. A low pressure center is forecast to develop along a
frontal boundary just offshore NE Florida early on Sun. The low
will move NE allowing a cold front to move southward across
Florida and the western Atlantic. This system will bring strong
to minimal gale-force northerly winds and a significant swell
event mainly across the waters N of 27N and W of 65W Sun night
into early next week.

$$
Flynn
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