[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure over northern Colombia is supporting NE to ENE near-gale
to gale winds at night within 90 nm of the coastal city of
Barranquilla, Colombia through tonight. Sea heights will peak at
10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward across the African coast
near the Liberia-Sierra Leone border to 04N20W to 02N26W. The ITCZ
begins near 02N26W and continues to 03S40W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 07N between 10W and 36W, and from 05S to
04N W of 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong return flow and seas in the 5 to 6 ft range
dominate the western half of the basin where low pressure
continues to build ahead of the next frontal boundary to enter the
gulf. The eastern half of the basin is under the influence of the
N Atlantic surface ridge, which is supporting mainly gentle to
moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft per recent altimeter data.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through
Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the W half of
the Gulf through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon and stall across
NW and W portions, where it will meander through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about a
Gale Warning.

The subtropical Atlantic ridges extends southward into the
northern half of the Caribbean, which against lower pressure over
NW Colombia continue to generate a pressure gradient leading to
the continuation of fresh to near gale-force E to NE winds across
the central and portions of the SW basin. Seas in these regions
are in the 7 to 12 ft range. The surface ridge is also supporting
fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to
8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging
associated with two centers of high pressure in the north Atlantic
and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near
gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean
through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to
gale-force through early this morning and again tonight. Fresh to
strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in
the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba today through Fri. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
declining northerly swell at the central Atlantic.

Surface ridging associated with two centers of high pressure in
the north Atlantic covers the subtropical Atlantic waters, including
the Bahamas and continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds
S of 22N to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds
and seas to 9 ft in this region will diminish late today.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening stationary front extending
from 31N61W to 26N72W to NE Florida will dissipate today. Fresh
to strong winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks and
Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough
is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W
through Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas E of the
Bahamas through the end of the week.

$$
Ramos
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