[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between surface
ridging north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over NW
Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night, except
for gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas are
expected to peak at 12 to 13 ft within the area of the strongest
winds tonight and peak to 11 ft the remainder forecast period.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Former cold front has stalled
along 31N21W to 25N33W to 22N41W where it starts to dissipate.
Large swell prevails in the wake of the front with seas of 12-15
ft in long period NW swell currently covering roughly the waters
N of 22N between 28W and 40W. This swell event, with a leading
edge period of 11-15 seconds, will continue to spread
southeastward across the waters E of 60W today. Seas are forecast
to subside below 12 ft over the NE corner of the forecast area by
Tue evening. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft will dominate most
of the waters N of 13N and E of 55W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W
and continues to 04N25W to 01N35W. The ITCZ extends from 01N35W
to 01S45W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed
within 180 nm either side of the monsoon/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending from strong high pressure centered SW of
the Azores Islands reaches the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico
while lower pressure starts to develop across the western half of
the basin ahead of an approaching front. This set up is supporting
moderate to fresh return flow W of 86W and seas of 3 to 5 ft per
recent altimeter data.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to
pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri. High
pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail
across most of the W half of the Gulf tonight through early Wed,
ahead of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into
the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions, where it will
meander through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between a ridge to the north and lower
pressures in NW Colombia results in fresh to near gale-force
easterly winds in the central, and great portions of the SW
Caribbean. The wave heights are 8-12 ft in the south-central, and
SW Caribbean. Winds elsewhere are moderate to fresh with seas of 4
to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging
associated with strong high pressure centered SW of the Azores
Islands, and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to
near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras
through Fri morning. Seas to 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across
the Tropical North Atlantic waters will gradually subside today
through Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in
the E Caribbean through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic.

High pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands extends W-SW to
the Bahamas and continues to support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds S of 22N to the east of the approaches to the Windward
Passage. A cold front extends from 31N64W to 28N73W and is
generating scattered showers and tstms N of 25N between 53W and
74W. Winds immediately ahead and behind this front are moderate to
locally fresh and seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. The remainder
subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influece of the Azores
High and associated surface ridging as well as the stationary
front mentioned in the Special Features section. Otherwise, a
tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over
NW Africa continue to support fresh to strong NE winds between the
coast of Africa and the Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds and seas to 10 ft E of the
Windward Passage and S of 22N will diminish late Tue as Atlantic
high pressure reorganizes N of the area. The cold front over the
SW N Atlantic waters will move SE and weaken through late Tue.
Moderate to locally fresh winds across the waters N of 29N in
advance and in the wake of this front will lift N of the area
today. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great
Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through
Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to
develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri.

$$
Ramos
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