[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between surface
ridging north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over NW
Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and
Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 13 ft within the
area of the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N23W to 28N28W, where it becomes a stationary front to 23N40W
and then a dissipating stationary front to 22N59W. A swell event
follows this front, with seas of 12-16 ft in long period NW swell
currently covering the waters N of a line from 31N25W to 20N50W
to 31N41W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 14-16
seconds, will continue to spread southeastward across the waters E
of 60W tonight and Mon. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft
over the NE corner of the forecast area by Tue evening. At this
time, seas of 8 to 11 ft will dominate most of the waters N of 13N
and E of 55W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N17W and continues to 03N26W. The ITCZ extends from
03N26W to 00N35W to 02S45W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 09N and east of 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate to fresh return flow is present west
of 87W, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Yucatan and the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light
to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure of 1019 mb is centered just W of
Fort Myers, Florida while a weakening stationary front extends
from Tampa NW to SE Louisiana. The front will dissipate tonight.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off
the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure
and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most
of the W half of the Gulf Mon night through early Wed, ahead of
the next cold front. This next front is expected to move into the
NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions, where it will
meander through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Pockets of shallow moisture traveling across the Caribbean Sea
are producing isolated showers. No deep convection is noted
across the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the
north and lower pressures in northern South America result in
fresh to near gale-force easterly winds in the central, SW and
eastern Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show
that strong to near gale force winds are occurring off NW
Colombia. The wave heights are 6-12 ft in the central, SW and
eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent
in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-4 ft are evident in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging
associated with strong high pressure centered in the central
Atlantic, and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh
to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia
will pulse to gale-force tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf
of Honduras through Fri morning. Seas to 10 ft in mixed N and E
swell across the Tropical North Atlantic waters will gradually
subside Mon through Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will
continue in the E Caribbean through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N70W to 29N76W, while a pre-frontal
surface trough extends from 29N66W to 24N71W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen east of the trough, north of 25N and west of
63W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are present north of 29N
and between 55W and 67W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are found south of 23N and
west of 55W, along with seas of 7-11 ft. In the remainder of the
western tropical atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

Another cold front extends from 31N23W to 28N28W, where it
becomes a stationary front to 23N40W and then a dissipating
stationary front to 22N59W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are
evident behind the frontal boundary, especially east of a line
from 31N38W to 22N59W. The strongest winds are noted east of 38W.
Seas of 10-15 ft are affecting the waters north of the frontal
boundary, with the highest seas near 31N35W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are prevalent west of 35W and
south of 20N.

In the far eastern atlantic, a tight pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridge SW of the Azores and lower pressures over
NW Africa supports fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and
east of 25W, where seas are in the 8-11 ft range. Elsewhere in
the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure centered across the
central Atlantic extends W-SW to the Bahamas and continues to
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 24N between 55W and
the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas to 10 ft in
this region will diminish late Tue as Atlantic high pressure
reorganizes N of the area. A cold front extending from 31N68W to
29N75W will move SE and weaken through late Tue. Fresh winds
across the waters N of 29N in advance of this front will lift N of
the area tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue
in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and
Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough
is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W
through Fri.

$$
DELGADO
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