[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a
surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures
over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale
force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia overnight through
Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 12-14 ft each night under
the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm-force extratropical cyclone
positioned between Nova Scotia and the Azores will continue to
push northeastward over the next few days. Large NW to N swell
generated by these winds are going to push south of 31N east of
60W starting this morning. This will cause combined seas to build
and peak between 14-16 ft north of 28N, and 11-13 ft seas reaching
as far south as 20N this afternoon through Mon afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 00N30W to 00N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S to 01N between 20W
and 32W, and from 03S to 02N W of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure system located just west of Bermuda
extends a ridge southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico and is
producing moderate to fresh return flow over most of the basin,
except for locally strong winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are
in the 3 to 5 ft range, highest in the SW gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of
a cold front that will enter the N Gulf today and exit the basin
Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast to pulse at night
off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast peiod. The next
cold front is forecast to come off the Texas coast Wed night.
Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the western half of
the gulf by Tue morning ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Strong high pressure N of the basin continues to support fresh to
strong trades across the central and SW Caribbean with seas of 7
to 10 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras along with 5-7 ft seas. Gale force winds are pulsing off
the coast of Colombia where seas are 11 to 13 ft. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds continue elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure centered just west of Bermuda and low pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night
through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast in the
Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast
period. Seas will build to 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across the
Tropical North Atlantic this weekend and then gradaually subside
through Tue morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Significant Swell at the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 23N55W to 22N70W. Strong high pressure
building in the wake of the front is producing fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds north of the front and east of the central
and southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail
offshore northeastern Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken and
dissipate today. The next cold front will move off the coast of
the SE U.S. tonight. This cold front will move southeast, become
stationary from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Mon night, then
weaken through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will continue
ahead of the front and also will follow the front as it shift
eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before
shifting north of the 31N Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong
winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between
Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through mid-week.

$$
Ramos

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