[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010417
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 35.3N 79.5W at 01/0300
UTC or 50 nm SSE of Greensboro, NC moving N at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft with mixed swell
to 12 ft still affecting the SW N Atlantic waters N of 29N
between 71W and 80W and 8 ft swell reaching as far south as 25N.
Ian is forecast to move north through central North Carolina
tonight and into Virginia tomorrow morning while gradually losing
intensity. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 02N to
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 12N, between 18W and 27W. This wave has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W, from 04N to
19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 13N, between 35W and 43W. A recent scatterometer pass
found moderate to fresh winds shifting from E to NE across the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N27W. The ITCZ continues from 10N27W to 10N36W. The ITCZ
continues west of a tropical wave from 10N41W to 12N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N, between 28W and
35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure in the western Gulf and
generally lower pressure in the western Atlantic in the wake of
Ian is supporting moderate northerly flow across the basin with
3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a stationary front prevails east of Florida.
Cool, dry conditions are accompanying the gentle to moderate N
winds across the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Winds should remain
tranquil for the next several days over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the western Caribbean from 20N79W
to 13N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
this feature are observed from 12N to 20N, between 72W and 83W,
including the Windward Passage. Similar convection is noted east
of 68W in the eastern Caribbean. Outside of thunderstorms, winds
are gentle to moderate across the basin with slight seas. 2-4 ft
northerly swell is gradually abating tonight in the far NW basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough should persist over the NW
Caribbean through Mon. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are
expected west of the trough through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate E to SE trades and slight to moderate seas will
persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian and impacted waters
please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

A stationary front extends from 31N75W to the coast of Cuba near
22N79W as a dissipating boundary. North of 29N and west of this
boundary, winds are fresh to strong from the NW, W and SW. North
of 25N and east of the boundary, winds are also fresh to strong,
but from the SE. 6-10 ft swell from Ian currently extends east to
70W and is propagating farther across the western Atlantic. In
the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the E with
3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh
from the NE with 6-8 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass
revealed an area of strong to near gale force winds near the
southern coast of Morocco, where seas are 8-12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian near
35.3N 79.5W 994 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Ian will become extratropical
and move to 36.6N 79.6W Sat morning, 38.0N 79.2W Sat evening, and
dissipate Sun morning. An early season cold front has become
stationary east of Florida in the wake of Ian. This front should
weaken on Sat, but be reinforced by another cold front moving off
of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should
reach from near 31N70W to 25N75W by Mon morning and dissipate by
Tue.

$$
Flynn
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