[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Sep 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian is centered near 33.2N 79.1W at 30/1800 UTC or 48
nm ENE of Charleston, South Carolina moving N at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Seas 12 ft or higher extend over
the forecast waters up to 270SE and 180SW quadrants. All
convection is north of the discussion waters. Ian is forecast to
turn toward the north-northwest by tonight and will move inland
across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight
and Saturday. Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system
are affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas,
and the northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along
the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula today.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the Agadir and Tarfaya Zones in the East Atlantic. North winds
of 34-40 kt (Force 8) with gusts are expected through 01/0300 UTC.
Seas are 8-11 ft in N swell. For more information, please see the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W, from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers isolated
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis and the
Monsoon Trough. This tropical wave has a LOW (10%) chance of
development through 48 hours and a MEDIUM (60%) chance of
development through five days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends is along 37W, from 19N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N to 12N between 34W and 37W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 07N25W to 07N38W. The Monsoon Trough resumes from 10N41W
to 08N48W. The ITCZ continues from 08N48W to 09N60W. Convection
is isolated and weak along these boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh N to NW flow in the lee of Hurricane Ian
continues across the basin, with subsiding seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, cool, dry conditions will accompany the gentle
to moderate N winds across the Gulf of Mexico today. Fresh to
strong NW winds occurring in the SW Gulf will diminish by
tomorrow morning. Winds should then remain tranquil for the next
several days over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough over the east-central Caribbean is supporting
scattered showers and tstorms in the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, a
weak pressure gradient in the lee of Hurricane Ian supports light
to gentle trades and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. The exception
is the far NW Caribbean, where NE winds are locally fresh and 4-6
ft N swell propagating out of the Gulf of Mexico continues. A
surface trough is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from the south
coast of Cuba near 21N78W to 16N82W.

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over
the NW Caribbean through Mon. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are
expected west of the trough through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate E to SE trades and slight to moderate seas will persist
across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on Hurricane Ian and impacted waters please refer to
the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. Please also see the SPECIAL
FEATURES section for information on the East Atlantic Gale
Warning.

In NW sections of the Discussion Waters, the extent of 20 kt or
greater SE to S winds associated with the circulation of Hurricane
Ian are occurring north of 26N and west of 70W. Seas greater than
8 ft are NW of a line from 31N72W to 27N80W.

An early season cold front, formed by the broad circulation in the
lee of Hurricane Ian, enters the waters near 31N75W and continues
to the north coast of Cuba near 23N82W. The analyst was quite
pleased with the cool and dry conditions in Miami this morning.

In the East Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong
NE winds were detected by the latest scatterometer pass within an
area from 17N to 21N between 21W and 28W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this
area of fresh to strong winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ian north of the area near
33.2N 79.1W 977 mb at 02 PM EDT moving N at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Ian will continue moving toward
the north away from our waters today, and winds and seas should
diminish north of the Bahamas by tomorrow afternoon. An early
season cold front has formed east of Florida in the wake of Ian.
This front should weaken, but be reinforced by another cold front
moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold
front should reach from near 31N70W to 25N75W by Mon morning and
dissipate by Tue.

$$
Mahoney
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