[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 300846
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOODING RAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha
Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Neuse River North Carolina
* St. Johns River Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.1 West.  Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn toward the north
with an increase in forward speed is expected this morning,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by tonight.  On the
forecast track, the center of Ian will approach and reach the coast
of South Carolina today, and then move farther inland across
eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected before Ian reaches
the coast later today.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall,
and Ian is forecast to become an extratropical low over North
Carolina tonight or on Saturday.  The low is then expected to
dissipate by Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km).  A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust
to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at the Hilton Head
Airport in South Carolina.  An elevated WeatherFlow station at the
Winyah Bay Range Light in South Carolina measured a sustained wind
of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h) during the past
couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft
* Little River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Savannah River to Edisto Beach...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River...2-4 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the
warning areas on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and
hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Hurricane Warning
area in South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina by this
afternoon.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in North Carolina by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across northwest North
Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week.  Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina today.  Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding is possible today into Saturday across portions of
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is
possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening
across eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast
Virginia overnight through early Saturday morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along
the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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