[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian is centered near 29.3N 79.9W at 29/2100 UTC or 210
nm S of Charleston South Carolina moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend
360 nm from the center. Peak seas over Atlantic offshore waters north
of the northern Bahamas are 25 ft. Numerous moderate convection is
N of 30N between 76W and 82W. A outer rainband covers the offshore
waters between 72W and 79W, including the central Bahamas to
central Cuba. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast
of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland
across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. Ian could slightly
strengthen before landfall tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly
weaken over the southeastern United States late Friday into
Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven is centered near 19.1N 38.1W at
29/2100 UTC or 830 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are
near 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the NE
quadrant from 20N to 23N between 34W and 38W. A general
northwestward motion is expected until the remnant low dissipates
within the next day or so. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 32W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast W Africa near 16N16W to
15N20W to 08N28W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to
09N50W to 12N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned above,
scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 02N-15N
between 13W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Even though Hurricane Ian is centered over the NE Florida offshore
waters, fresh to strong northerly winds from its outer wind
circulation continue to affect the entire basin, being the
strongest winds in the NE gulf and offshore waters of Veracruz,
Mexico. These winds are also being enhanced by a surface ridge
building across the western basin in the wake of the hurricane.
Seas range between 5 to 8 ft with the highest seas S of 28N.

For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to gradually
diminish over the Gulf region over the next couple of days.
Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the NE Gulf late Sat or Sun
then stall and dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level diffluent flow to the east of a middle to upper level
low located between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico
continue to support a broad area of showers and tstms across the
Lesser Antilles and the E Caribbean. The other areas with similar
convection is Jamaica adjacent waters and the lee of central and
southern Cuba due to the outer rainbands of Hurricane Ian centered
over the NE Florida offshore waters. In terms of winds and seas,
light to gentle winds dominate the region, except for the NW
Caribbean offshore waters where moderate to fresh northerly winds
with seas to 7 ft in northerly swell prevail in the wake of
Hurricane Ian.

For the forecast, large N well produced earlier this week from
Ian will continue to spread through the Yucatan Channel through
tonight. A surface trough is forecast to persist over the NW
Caribbean through at least Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds are
expected W of the trough through Fri night. Elsewhere gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist
across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on Tropical Storm Ian, centered offshore NE Florida,
and T.D. Eleven please read the Special Features section above.

Aside from Hurricane Ian affecting the SW N Atlantic waters N of
the northern Bahamas, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas
to 8 ft are affecting the offshore waters of the central and
southern Bahamas. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are
under the influence of the Azores High ridge, which is supporting
gentle to moderate easterly winds in the central subtropical
waters and fresh to locally strong NE winds between the coast of
W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ian near 29.3N 79.9W 986
mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt
gusts 80 kt. Ian will move to 30.5N 79.4W Fri morning, 32.8N 79.6W
Fri afternoon, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 35.0N
80.4W Sat morning, 36.5N 81.0W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun
morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into
Sun.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net