[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian is centered near 29.3N 79.9W at 29/2100 UTC or 210
nm S of Charleston South Carolina moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend
360 nm from the center. Peak seas over Atlantic offshore waters north
of the northern Bahamas are 25 ft. Numerous moderate convection is
N of 30N between 76W and 82W. A outer rainband covers the offshore
waters between 72W and 79W, including the central Bahamas to
central Cuba. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast
of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland
across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. Ian could slightly
strengthen before landfall tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly
weaken over the southeastern United States late Friday into
Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven is centered near 19.1N 38.1W at
29/2100 UTC or 830 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are
near 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the NE
quadrant from 20N to 23N between 34W and 38W. A general
northwestward motion is expected until the remnant low dissipates
within the next day or so. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends along 30/31W from
07N to 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring within 90 nm either side of the
wave axis from 12.5N to 16N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Mauritania
near 17N16W to 15N20W to 08N28W to 08N34W. The monsoon trough
resumes from 10N37W to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to
09N50W to 11N57W. Aside from the convection mentioned above,
scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 02N-10N
between 11W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Ian is centered 20 nm offshore of Cape Canaveral,
FL, over the Atlantic. As of 1500 UTC, the tropical storm warning
has been discontinued for the Gulf Coast of Florida. However,
strong to near-gale force N winds are still occurring east of 85W
and north of 26N. Of note, a 1022 mb high pressure is centered
over NE Mexico near 26N100W. Moderate to fresh N winds are
prevalent elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico, west of 85W, due to
the strong pressure gradient between the high pressure and Ian.
The exception is near the coast of Veracruz, where strong NW to N
winds are likely occurring. Seas of 8-11 ft cover the E Gulf, east
of 88W from the Yucatan Channel to 29N. Seas of 7-9 ft cover the W
Gulf, west of 88W.

For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to gradually
diminish over the Gulf waters over the next couple of days. By
sunrise Friday, winds over the E Gulf will diminish to fresh and
seas will subside to less than 8 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front
may enter the northeast Gulf late Sat or Sun then stall and
dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough with an axis from Puerto Rico to the N
coast of Colombia is generating numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection across the eastern Caribbean, east of 67W,
extending to 55W, including near the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is
inducing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection mainly
south of 12N between 74W-80W, including along the coast of NW
Colombia. A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from
22N81W to 17N86W to northern Guatemala. Scattered moderate showers
prevail within 60 nm of the trough axis.

The latest ASCAT satellite wind data indicates that mostly gentle
wind speeds prevail across the basin. Moderate NW to N winds are
occurring over the far NW Caribbean, to the west of the
aforementioned surface trough. Seas are 2-3 ft across the basin,
to the east of 83W. Over the NW Caribbean, west of 83W, seas are 3
to 7 ft, except 7 to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel in N swell.

For the forecast, the large N swell will continue to spread
through the Yucatan Channel through tonight before subsiding.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on Tropical Storm Ian, centered just offshore Cape
Canaveral, FL, please read the Special Features section above.
Winds of 20 kt or greater associated with the circulation of Ian
currently extend over the waters to the west of 73W and north of
25N. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated with Ian extend over the
waters west of 72W and north of 26N. Convection associated with
Ian is limited to areas mainly west of 73W.

An upper-level low near 22N65W extends a sharp upper-level trough
SW to Puerto Rico to the N coast of Colombia. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection prevails from 09N-18N between
55W-67W. Associated scattered moderate convection is also seen
from 18N-25N between 60W-70W. Farther east, an upper-level low
centered near 31N42W is inducing scattered moderate convection
mainly north of 30N between 33W-42W. Aside from areas near Ian
and T.D. Eleven, gentle to moderate trades prevail across the
basin with 4-7 ft seas. One exception is off the coasts of Morocco
and Western Sahara, where fresh to strong N to NE winds and 6-8
ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to
strengthen to a 65 kt hurricane near 30N80W this evening, move N
of the area to near 32N80W Fri morning, then move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 34N 80.3W Fri evening. Winds will
diminish to below 25 kt over the forecast waters by Sat morning,
and seas will subside to below 8 ft by late Sat afternoon.

$$
Ramos
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