[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 292057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TAKING AIM AT THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 79.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Cape Fear.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Cape Fear River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from east of Cape Fear to Surf
City, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night.  On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday.  The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall
tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern
United States late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km). Kennedy Space Center Tower 1 recently reported a
wind gust to 89 mph (145 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday,
and in the watch area in North Carolina on Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week.  Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across South Carolina through Friday.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible this weekend across portions of northwest North Carolina
and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions
of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Florida
and Georgia. Swells will increase along the coasts of South Carolina
and North Carolina.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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