[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 291439
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

The overnight deep convective burst with Tropical Depression Eleven
did not appear to help spin up its low-level circulation. In fact,
morning visible satellite imagery suggest that the circulation is
actually losing definition, and may already be in the process of
opening up into a surface trough. For now, we will continue writing
advisories on the system, pending scatterometer data expected later
today. The latest intensity was held at 30 kt based on the CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB. If the current trends on visible
satellite imagery continue, the system may be declared either
post-tropical or dissipated as soon as this afternoon. Vertical wind
shear only increases from here on out as the mid-level relative
humidity remains quite low, so it looks increasingly unlikely the
structure can recover. The NHC intensity forecast shows more
immediate weakening but is generally in line with the intensity
guidance consensus.

The initial motion appears to still be off to the northwest, just a
bit faster at 320/12 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue until the system dissipates, as the system is steered
generally by a low-level ridge that has nosed in to the northeast of
the depression. The updated track is quite similar, but just a
touch west, of the prior track, remaining close to the consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 19.1N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 20.6N  38.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 22.8N  40.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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