[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 291200
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Boca Raton to Jupiter Inlet has
been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Middle of
Longboat Key south to Flamingo including Charlotte Harbor.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 80.7 West.  Ian is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north and north-northwest with an increase in forward speed
Friday and Friday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move off the east-central coast of Florida soon and
then approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday.  The
center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some re-intensification is forecast, and Ian could be near
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of South Carolina
on Friday.  Weakening is expected Friday night and Saturday after
Ian moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.  Daytona Beach International Airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River...4-6 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Englewood to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the
warning area on the east and west coasts of Florida and should
spread northward along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina coasts today through Friday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South
Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record  flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida.  Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through
the weekend.  Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited
flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two remains possible across east-central
and northeast Florida through this morning. This threat will shift
into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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