[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

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Tropical Storm Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092022
540 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING IMPACTS
OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WITH IAN**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal
      Flagler, Coastal Glynn, Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and South
      Central Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Brantley, Central
      Marion, Eastern Marion, Inland Camden, Inland Flagler, Inland
      Glynn, Inland Nassau, Northeastern Charlton, Trout River,
      Wayne, Western Charlton, Western Clay, Western Duval, Western
      Marion, and Western Putnam
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Eastern Alachua, Gilchrist, Union, and Western Alachua

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 170 miles south of Jacksonville FL or about 100 miles
      south of Flagler Beach FL
    - 28.0N 80.9W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Ian moving over central Florida toward the east central coast of
Florida has weakened to a tropical storm. Ian will move offshore and
pivot north-northeastward through the coastal waters today approach
the South Carolina coast on Friday. Ian could re-intensify as it treks
through the Atlantic waters. A more eastward shift in the track will
limit most of the hazards to north central Florida, coastal northeast
Florida and coastal southeast Georgia.

A storm surge warning is in effect along the coast as well as the St
Johns River with storm surge inundation up to 6 feet along the coast
and intracoastal waterway , 3 to 5 feet for the St Johns River from
just west of Mayport to Julington Creek, and St Johns River south of
Julington of 2 to 4 feet. Trapped tides in the St. Johns river will
exacerbate flooding for areas along the St. Johns river.

Extensive to potentially extreme rainfall amounts are expected over
Flagler and St. Johns counties. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible over areas east of HWY 301. A flood watch is in effect for
parts of the area into Saturday morning. Persistent moderate to heavy
rains and squalls with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop
through Today and continue into Friday morning. Also, minor river
flooding is expected along the Black Creek River.

A hurricane watch is in effect along the coast of northeast FL and
southeast GA, with tropical storm warnings up for portions of
northeast FL and southeast GA. Over the tropical storm warning area,
tropical storm force winds are unfolding over northeast FL, and then
extend north into southeast Georgia today. Gusts to hurricane
strength will be possible along the coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are about to unfold across
coastal southeast Georgia, coastal northeast Florida, intracoastal
waterway, and the St. Johns River basin. Remain well away from life-
threatening surge having possible significant impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across inland Glynn, Nassau, and Camden counties.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are unfolding across Flagler
and St. Johns counties. Remain well guarded against life-threatening
flood waters having possible devastating impacts. If realized, these
impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain will unfold across areas east
of HWY 301. Remain well guarded against life-threatening flood waters
having additional limited to extensive impacts.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding across
portions of northeast Florida, north central FL, and southeast Georgia.
Remain well sheltered from dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.


* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across Flagler
county. Remain well braced against a tornado event having possible |limited
impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-
powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not venture outside while in the eye of a hurricane as any
improvement in weather will only be temporary. Once the eye passes,
conditions will become life threatening as winds immediately return
to dangerous speeds, so remain safely sheltered from the storm.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

Quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if it begins to
fail, preferably an interior room on the lowest floor as long as
flooding is not a concern.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

If an Extreme Wind Warning is issued for your area, move to the
safest place within your shelter. Take the same life-saving actions
as if it were a violent tornado.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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