[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 290844
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

Deep convection associated with the depression has become more
concentrated overnight, but it remains well to the northeast of the
low-level center due to moderate southwesterly vertical shear.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt.
Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are slightly higher, but since the
current convective burst has not persisted very long, the initial
intensity is maintained at 30 kt, in line with the subjective
satellite estimates.  The cyclone is forecast to move into an area
of stronger upper-level southwesterlies, and as a consequence the
SHIPS guidance indicates that the shear will increase to more than
30 kt in about 24 hours.  Therefore, little change in strength is
expected in the short term, and weakening should occur by late
tomorrow with the depression becoming a remnant low. The system is
forecast degenerate into a trough of low pressure by 48 hours, but
the global model guidance suggests this could occur sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 320/11 kt. The depression should
continue to move generally northwestward for the next day or two
within the low- to mid-level flow.  The updated track forecast is
slightly west of the previous track, but it remains close to the
various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 17.8N  36.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 19.3N  37.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 21.3N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 23.6N  40.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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