[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
616 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**MAJOR HURRICANE IAN EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS FLOODING
 RAINS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Northern Brevard, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia,
      Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern
      Brevard Barrier Islands, Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange,
      Osceola, Seminole, Southern Brevard Barrier Islands, and
      Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, and Inland Saint Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles south of Leesburg FL or about 120 miles
      south-southwest of Orlando FL
    - 26.9N 82.0W
    - Storm Intensity 140 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 PM, Major Hurricane Ian was located about 120 miles south-
southwest of Orlando, FL. Ian's maximum sustained winds are 140 mph,
making it a Dangerous Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is moving north-northeast around 8 mph
across southwest Florida.

Late this afternoon, Ian made landfall just south of Punta Gorda near
Pirate Harbor as a high end Category Four Hurricane with maximum
sustained winds of 145 mph. Ian will weaken as it progresses towards
the north-northeast over the Florida peninsula through tonight and into
Thursday. Ian will track across the interior counties of east central
Florida through Thursday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Indian River, St. Lucie, and
Martin counties, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. A Hurricane Warning
continues for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, Brevard,
and Volusia counties, as well as the adjacent Atlantic waters.

Ian will approach and then move across the region at a slightly slower
forward speed tonight into Thursday. Significant to extensive wind
impacts are expected from Ian, with Tropical Storm Force wind gusts
associated with the rainbands of Ian, lasting through Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are expected with the passage of the center of the
storm across portions of the inland counties and reaching Volusia and
Brevard counties. Wind impacts may linger into late Thursday night
across the far northern portions of east central Florida, especially
across Volusia County.

A Flood Watch continues for all of east central Florida through late
Thursday night. Catastrophic flooding impacts are expected to develop
tonight and last through Thursday, with widespread heavy rainfall
expected to continue through Thursday night. Storm total rainfall
amounts are forecast to range from 12 to 20 inches with maximum
localized amounts up to 30 inches occurring over areas north of a line
from Kissimmee to near New Smyrna Beach.

Expect total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches with isolated 18 inch
amounts from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee. To the south, 4 to 8 inches
with isolated 12 inch totals are forecast with much of this having
already fallen. This amount of rainfall will cause major flooding for
portions of the area, especially for locations that have already
received high rainfall amounts over the past 7 days. Creeks and rivers
that are already approaching bankfull will overflow, leading to
substantial flooding. Urban locations and low- lying areas are
especially vulnerable with inundation of major roadways and flooding
of structures expected.

The potential for tornadoes will continue from northern Osceola to the
Volusia and Brevard coast. The threat for tornadoes will continue
through Thursday. A Tornado Watch is in effect for all east central
Florida counties except for Lake County through 1 AM.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across areas from Brevard and Osceola counties
northwards. Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain
      areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing
      susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very dangerous.
      Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed
      out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across areas from Brevard and Osceola counties northwards. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.



* TORNADOES:
Protect against potential impacts from tornadoes across East Central
Florida. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado event having
significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
east central Florida. Remain well away from locally hazardous surge
having possible minor impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to
a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open
for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay in your location indoors to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location as the potential for strong winds and possible dangerous
flooding increase through Thursday morning.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around Midnight, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Fehling/Volkmer
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