[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 282035
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

The depression has not become any better organized this afternoon,
and in fact, the low-level center is now mostly exposed to the west
of the deepest convective activity, which is relatively meager.
Satellite estimates are either unchanged or have even decreased a
little this afternoon, and the latest initial intensity was held at
30 kt for this advisory.

Tropical Depression Eleven has been moving to the north-northwest
this afternoon a bit faster than earlier, estimated at 345/9-kt. A
low- to mid-level ridge located to the east is steering the storm
currently, and this ridge will stay put while the weakness
associated with a large upper-level trough should allow the
depression to turn northward in the subtropical Atlantic basin. The
guidance this cycle is a shade further west early on, but actually
ends up a bit east of the previous track in 48-60 hours. The NHC
track forecast also was nudged a bit west earlier on, and a bit east
by the 60 h, in good agreement with the consensus aids.

The window of favorable upper-level winds is quickly closing, as the
current 5-10 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to increase to
over 20 kt in 24 hours. In addition, the depression is embedded in a
fairly dry mid-level air environment, which is likely playing a role
in the limited convective activity currently. The latest intensity
forecast still gives an opportunity for the depression to become a
short-lived tropical storm during the typical diurnal max in
convection tonight, but now shows earlier weakening, making the
system a remnant low in 60-h and dissipated shortly thereafter. This
intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the consensus
aids which have also trended downward form earlier today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 16.7N  34.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 18.2N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.2N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 22.5N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 25.1N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 28.5N  38.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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