[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Special Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
731 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANE IAN TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC WINDS,
 AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Lake, Okeechobee,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland
      Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard
      Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 200 miles south-southwest of Orlando FL
    - 25.9N 82.8W
    - Storm Intensity 155 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 700 AM, Major Hurricane Ian was located over the southeast Gulf
of Mexico, about 200 miles south-southwest of Orlando. Ian's maximum
sustained winds are 155 mph, making it an Extremely Dangerous High End
Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Ian is moving north-northeast at 10 mph, and will continue to track
toward the southwest Florida coast at the same heading and forward
speed today.

Ian is forecast to make landfall along southwest Florida coast late
this afternoon as a powerful major hurricane. After landfall, Ian will
weaken as it continues moving north-northeast over the Florida
peninsula through tonight and into Thursday. Its track will take it
across the interior counties of east central Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all coastal east central
Florida counties and adjacent Atlantic waters. A Hurricane Warning
continues for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee
counties.

Ian will approach and then move across the region at a slightly slower
forward speed through tonight and Thursday. Significant to extensive
wind impacts are expected from Ian, with the onset of Tropical Storm
Force wind gusts associated with the outer bands of Ian, beginning
this afternoon and continuing through Thursday. Hurricane conditions
are expected with the passage of the center of the storm across
portions of the inland counties. Wind impacts may linger into late
Thursday night across the far northern portions of east central
Florida, especially across Volusia County.

A Flood Watch continues for all of east central Florida through late
Thursday night. Major flooding impacts are expected to develop
throughout the day, and widespread heavy rainfall is expected to
continue through Thursday night. Storm total rainfall amounts are
forecast to range from 12 to 18 inches with localized amounts greater
than 20 inches occurring over areas north of a line from Kissimmee to
near New Smyrna Beach.

Expect 8 to 15 inches with isolated 18 inch amounts from Melbourne to
Lake Kissimmee, and 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch totals farther
south. This amount of rainfall will cause major flooding for portions
of the area, especially for locations that have already received high
rainfall amounts over the past 7 days. Creeks and rivers that are
already approaching bankfull will overflow, leading to substantial
flooding. Urban locations and low-lying areas are especially
vulnerable with inundation of major roadways and flooding of
structures possible.

An increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes to develop will
spread northward from Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast across
the remainder of east central Florida today, and will continue through
tonight and Thursday.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for all east central Florida counties
except for Lake and Volusia County through 5 PM. However, the threat
for tornadoes is expected to spread north across these two counties
toward sunset.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are starting to unfold across
east central Florida. Remain well guarded against life- threatening
flood waters having possible devastating impacts. If realized, these
impacts include:

    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks in
      many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become swiftly moving rivers.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers. Driving conditions
      become very dangerous.


* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event will begin to unfold later
today across east central Florida. Remain well sheltered from life-
threatening wind having extensive impacts. If realized, these impacts
include:

    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.


* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are unfolding across East Central
Florida. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado event having
possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.


* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event will soon unfold across
east central Florida. Remain well away from locally hazardous surge
having limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to
a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open
for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi/Schaper
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