[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 22
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL092022
538 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This product covers the Florida Keys

**STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for the Lower Keys
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
      the Middle and Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 100 miles northwest of Key West FL or about 130 miles
      west-northwest of Marathon FL
    - 25.6N 82.9W
    - Storm Intensity 140 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 100 miles
west-northwest of Key West, or about 75 miles west-southwest of Naples.
Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph. This general
motion with a reduction in forward speed will continue today, followed
by a turn toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is expected to approach the west coast of Florida within
the hurricane warning area this morning, and move onshore later today.
The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and
Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph, making Ian an extremely
dangerous category four hurricane.

Storm surge from the Atlantic side of the Lower Keys peaked around
midnight, and will continue to subside early this morning as the
astronomical tide moves towards low tide shortly before and around
sunrise.

Widespread storm surge flooding originating from the Gulfside up to 4
feet above normal high tide levels is expected from Key West through
Big Pine Key later today. For several islands, the storm surge will
pass over from the Gulf side to the oceanside. The peak storm surge
levels will likely occur from around noon through mid afternoon. Many
streets will become impassible, with water into ground floor homes and
businesses, especially those in lower elevation areas.

For the Middle and Upper Keys, storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet
above normal high tides is possible. The highest storm surge for the
Gulfside and Bayside of the Middle Keys is expected later today during
the afternoon hours, with the storm surge in the Bayside of the Upper
Keys gradually peaking Thursday through Friday.

Other impacts to the Florida Keys include damaging wind gusts of 50 to
65 mph, mainly this morning with the strongest winds in the Lower
Keys, additional rainfall up to one inch, and the potential for an
isolated tornado.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against hazardous storm surge having significant impacts
across the Florida Keys. Impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Structural damage to some buildings. Flooded locations
      may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Sections of secondary roads become weakened or washed out,
      especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected
      anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Florida Keys. Remain well sheltered from dangerous wind having
additional significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across the
Florida Keys. Remain well guarded against locally hazardous flood
waters having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the
Florida Keys. Remain well braced against a tornado event having
possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-
powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and check-
ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/jic
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

LIW/Jacobson
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