[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Special Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL092022
1251 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This product covers the Florida Keys

**STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR LOWER KEYS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning for Monroe Lower Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Monroe Lower Keys
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Monroe Middle Keys and Monroe Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 80 miles west-northwest of Key West FL or about 120 miles
      west of Marathon FL
    - 25.0N 82.9W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1200 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 80 miles
west-northwest of Key West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast
near 10 mph, and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed
is forecast overnight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the
north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian will
continue to pass west and northwest of the Florida Keys during the next
few hours, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. The center of Ian is forecast to move over
central Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerge over
the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, and some strengthening is
expected overnight and into Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the
west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Storm surge from the Atlantic side has peaked at 3 to 5 feet above the
lowest elevation areas on the ocean side of the Lower Keys. Water has
been reported inside of some homes along the southern shores. Additional
storm surge flooding from the Gulf side is expected later today,
peaking at 3 to 5 feet above the lowest elevation areas, mainly on the
Gulf side of the Lower Keys, during the afternoon high tide.

Bayside flooding in the Upper Keys will linger Thursday and Friday.

Other impacts to the Florida Keys will continue overnight into
Wednesday, including damaging wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph, with the
strongest winds in the Lower Keys, additional rainfall of 1 to
3 inches, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against hazardous storm surge having significant impacts across
the Florida Keys. Impacts in this area include:
 - Areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      wave action. Structural damage to some buildings. Flooded
      locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves.
    - Sections of secondary roads become weakened or washed out,
      especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
    - Moderate to major beach erosion.
    - Moderate to major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and
      piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Florida Keys. Remain well sheltered from dangerous wind having
additional significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rainfall
      flooding at low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains
      and retention ponds overflow. Some secondary road closures due
      to freshwater flooding.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the
Florida Keys. Remain well braced against a tornado event having
possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-
powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

Quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if it begins to
fail, preferably an interior room on the lowest floor as long as
flooding is not a concern.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/jic
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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