[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL092022
818 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers South Florida

**Increasing Concern For Storm Surge Along The Southwest Florida
Coast**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Glades, Hendry, and
      Inland Collier
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Far South Miami-Dade
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Palm Beach,
      Inland Broward, Inland Miami-Dade, Inland Palm Beach, and Metro
      Palm Beach

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles south-southwest of Naples FL
    - 22.6N 83.6W
    - Storm Intensity 125 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Ian made landfall over western Cuba as a major hurricane
earlier this morning, and is forecast to continue strengthening as it
enters the Gulf of Mexico waters this morning. While a direct landfall
to South Florida remains unlikely at this time, eastward shift in the
forecast track means increasing concern for greater impacts across the
region. Hazardous conditions will extend well away from the center of
the system. The following hazardous conditions can be expected for
South Florida:

* Peak storm surge values of 4 to 7 feet are expected particularly in
surge prone areas between Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee. Peak storm
surge values of 3 to 5 feet are the main concern from Chokoloskee to
Flamingo and 2 to 4 feet from Flamingo to Card Sound Road along
Florida Bay. The storm surge concern will begin tonight with peak
values sometime on wednesday. Due to slow motion of the system, surge
will be slow to subside and is likely to impact the region through
late week. This could lead to significant and life-threatening storm
surge flooding particularly along the Collier county coast.

* Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with rainbands may lead
to flooding across all of South Florida. Rainfall totals may range
4 to 8 inches through Thursday with locally higher totals possible.
Flash flooding will be possible in this environment.

* Tornadoes embedded in showers and thunderstorms within the outer
rainbands associated with the system were observed overnight, and will
continue to be possible through mid-week.

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected, as a high risk
for rip currents is in effect across all South Florida beaches.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected along the Gulf coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across coastal Southwest Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant impacts along portions of Florida Bay in extreme far
southern Miami-Dade county adjacent to Everglades National Park.

Minor impacts are possible along the southeastern coast of South Florida
due to increased onshore flow and tides running above normal.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets, parking lots and underpasses become submerged. Driving
      conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with
      some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of Southwest Florida and around and west of Lake
Okeechobee. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the remainder of South Florida, mostly associated with the
possibility of seeing gusts to tropical storm force.

* TORNADOES:
There is an increasing concern for the occurrence of several tornadoes
ahead of the storm starting today and lasting through at least tomorrow
across all of South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible and or mandatory evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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