[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 270309
HLSTAE
FLZ015-114-115-118-127-128-134-271115-

Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL092022
1109 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 /1009 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Franklin,
      Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles south-southeast of Panama City or about 590
      miles south of Apalachicola
    - 21.3N 83.4W
    - Storm Intensity 105 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 11pm EDT Hurricane Ian remains just south of the western tip of
Cuba. Ian is still forecast to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico before beginning to weaken as it
approaches the northeast Gulf. Ian is currently forecast to pass near
the Tampa Bay area before continuing to the north- northeast. There
remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast of Ian beyond the next
couple of days. We will have a better idea of specific impacts once
the track and intensity forecasts become more clear.

The Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch remain unchanged from
the last advisory. Tropical Storm watches are in effect for all
coastal zones from Indian Pass east towards the Suwanee River. A Storm
Surge watch is also in effect from the Aucilla River east to the
Suwanee River.

Forecast uncertainty still remains high with Ian, but we will be able
to provide additional details on Ian over the next 24 hours.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Apalachee Bay Coast from Aucilla River east towards
the Suwanee River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the rest of the Apalachee Bay from the Aucilla River
west to Indian Pass.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across the Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts elsewhere across southwest Georgia.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across the rest of the Florida Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net