[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 270257
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday.  A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba overnight and early
Tuesday.  Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An amateur radio operator recently reported that an
automated weather station at Cayo Largo, Cuba measured a
wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) during the last couple of hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba beginning tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight
and Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall through Thursday:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches;
these rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over  western Cuba.
* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches
* Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with
local maxima up to 10 inches.
* Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to
20 inches.
* Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.
* Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula:  4 to 8 inches.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged
significant river flooding is likely mid-to-late week across central
and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina.
Flash and urban flooding is also possible with rainfall across
southern Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding
are possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
will begin to affect the Florida Keys Tuesday, and will spread
northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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