[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 262201
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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL092022
601 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Violent squalls will increase in coverage tonight**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
      the Lower Keys
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      the Middle Keys
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 310 miles south-southwest of Key West FL or about 330
      miles south-southwest of Marathon FL
    - 20.3N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 100 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 155 miles
southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian is moving toward the north-
northwest, and a turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward
speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a
further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over
western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys
late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into
Thursday.

Although the forecast calls for a smooth curving turn to the north,
tiny wobbles, interactions with land, and fluctuations in intensity
will result in subtle shifts in the forecast track over the next
36 hours. Nevertheless, Ian will pass west of the Florida Keys Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night as a major hurricane with a large wind
field extending well to the east of the center of circulation. Threats
will include damaging wind gusts from fast moving, severe squalls,
storm surge flooding 1 to 3 feet above normal high tides, 4 to 6
inches of flooding rainfall with localized totals up to 8 inches, and
isolated tornadoes.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous winds having possible significant impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with minor
      damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
      buildings may experience window, door, and garage door
      failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
      Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Isolated power and communications outages possible. Also, protect
      against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
      western-most Lower Keys.

* SURGE:
Protect against hazardous storm surge having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves.
    - Sections of secondary roads become weakened or washed out,
      especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
    - Minor beach erosion.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rainfall flooding
      at low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and
      parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention
      ponds overflow. Some secondary road closures due to freshwater
      flooding.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes damaged, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
      shallow rooted trees knocked over, and small boats pulled from
      moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Residents and visitors in campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel
trailers, liveaboard vessels, and mobile homes should prepare to seek
shelter with friends or family in a safe structure throughout the
storm.

Key West and Marathon airports remain fully operational. Please check
with your airline provider for any cancellations or delays at this
time.

County government offices and Monroe County schools are closed on
Tuesday.

Monroe County boat ramps will remain open.

There will be no garbage service south of the Seven Mile Bridge on
Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
  monroecountyem.com/jic

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around midnight, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CLR
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