[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Mon Sep 26 16:36:28 CDT 2022

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092022
536 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
      for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal
      Glynn, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Eastern Putnam,
      Inland St. Johns, and South Central Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Central Marion,
      Eastern Clay, Eastern Marion, Inland Flagler, Trout River, and
      Western Marion

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Glynn,
      Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Eastern Putnam, Inland St.
      Johns, and South Central Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Central Marion, Eastern
      Clay, Eastern Marion, Inland Flagler, Trout River, and Western
      Marion

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 700 miles south of Jacksonville FL or about 610 miles
      south of Ocala FL
    - 20.3N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 100 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Ian, located near 20.3 north, 83.2 west, continues to intensify over
the northwest Caribbean Sea and is forecast to track north northwest tonight,
then north on Tuesday. Current maximum winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts.
On the forecast track, Ian is expected to move into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and approach the west coast of Florida Wednesday and Thursday.
There is still some uncertainty on the eventual track of Ian later in
the period, which will have affects on realized wind speeds.

Increasing rain chances are expected Tuesday from south to north, with more
rain and rain squalls and possibly embedded thunderstorms occurring
Wednesday through Friday. A significant rainfall threat is possible
with additional flood watches likely required. There is also a concern
for isolated tornadoes across parts of northeast and north central FL
beginning early Thursday.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect along the southeast GA and
northeast FL coastal counties as well as Putnam, Marion, and Eastern
Clay counties. A storm surge watch is in effect for the entire coast,
as well as the St Johns River.

The start of tropical storm force winds may begin as early as Wednesday
across north central FL and northeast FL, and Wednesday night over
southeast GA.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across parts of northeast FL. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Georgia.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across the parts of northeast FL. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the southeast Georgia and northeast FL coast and the
St Johns River through Clay and Putnam counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across northeast
Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Increasing northeast winds Tuesday and stronger winds on Wednesday
will build surf along the coast creating very dangerous surf, rip
currents as well as beach erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

If leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get there.
Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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