[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 262128
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-270930-

Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
528 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Indian
      River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia,
      Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard,
      Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia,
      Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern
      Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland
      Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard
      Barrier Islands, Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola,
      Seminole, Southern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 590 miles south of Leesburg FL or about 580 miles
      south-southwest of Orlando FL
    - 20.3N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 100 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Ian was located about 590 miles south of Leesburg at 5 pm
with 100 mph winds and continues to strengthen while moving Northwest at
13 mph. Ian is forecast to cross the westernmost portion of Cuba as a
major hurricane early Tuesday and enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico
and continue strengthening through Tuesday afternoon. Ian is then
forecast to track north northeast offshore the southwest Florida coast
on Wednesday and approach the west central Florida coast Wednesday
night and Thursday while slowing in forward speed.

With Ians approach, tropical storm conditions will develop across east
central Florida from north to south on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for all east central Florida
counties. Flooding impacts may begin as early as Tuesday with wind
impacts as early as Wednesday across east central Florida.

Significant to extensive wind impacts are expected with the onset of
tropical storm wind gusts associated with the outer bands of Ian
Wednesday and deteoriating wind conditions expected Wednesday night
into Thursday. Wind impacts may linger into Thursday night and early
Friday across mainly northern portions of east central Florida from
Orlando and Cape Canaveral northward as Ian moves northward late this
week.

Locally heavy rainfall amounts are expected Tuesday through Thursday
night across east central Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts may
reach 5 to 10 inches with some localized spots reaching 12 inches. A
Flood Watch is in effect across all of east central Florida through
late Thursday night. Additional areal and river flooding is likely
across portions of east central Florida that receive the heaviest
rainfall.

The environment will also be increasingly favorable for the development
of isolated tornadoes across east central Florida Tuesday through mid
week.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across Lake County. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the remainder of east central Florida.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
along the east central Florida Atlantic coast and intracoastal waters
shorelines. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across east central Florida. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff
      may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
      rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers
      may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 1130 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

15
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net