[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian is centered near 18.2N 82.0W at
26/0900 UTC or 80 nm SW of Grand Cayman moving NW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 80 nm from the center in the N
semicircle, 70 nm in the SE quadrant, and 30 nm in the SW
quadrant. The sea heights are 12 ft or greater within 60 nm of the
center N semicircle and 30 nm in the S semicircle, with peak seas
of around 17 ft. Strong winds and seas of at least 8 ft associate
with Ian encompass an area from 16N to 21N between 78W and 84W.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

An area of low pressure with 1008 mb located several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 15N36W, continues to
produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N
to 16N between 33W and 40W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could
form during the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable toward the end of the week. The system is expected to
meander during the next day or two and then move slowly north-
northwestward. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in
the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the next 5 days.
Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following
website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

No tropical waves are present at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from near the Mauritania Senegal border
near 16N16W to 12N23W to 10N31W to a 1008 mb low pressure,
described in the Special Features section above, near 15N36W to
07N41W. The ITCZ then continues to 09N51W. Aside from convection
associated with the low pressure, no significant convection is
occurring.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding
newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian.

A mid and upper level low pressure trough with an axis just inland
over Mexico and Texas is leading to scattered moderate convection
W of 91W. A weak surface trough has formed in the far SE Gulf,
and this feature is inducing scattered moderate convection within
30 nm either side of a line from SW Florida to the western tip of
Cuba. Elsewhere over the Gulf, weak high pressure centered in the
NE Gulf is keeping conditions dry. The basin is dominated by light
to gentle NE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft.

Newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian will move to 19.7N 83.0W this
afternoon, 21.7N 83.9W Tue morning, 23.6N 84.1W Tue afternoon, and
25.3N 84.1W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian is forecast to be a Major
Hurricane near 26.7N 83.7W Wed afternoon, then be near 27.7N 83.4W
Thu morning. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves near
the Florida Gulf coast early Fri. Expect hazardous conditions in
the eastern and central Gulf as early as tonight and continuing
much of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian.

Away from Hurricane Ian, no significant convection is occurring.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate the central and eastern basin,
with gentle to moderate winds in the western Caribbean. Seas
average 3 to 6 ft. The monsoon trough is along 09N76W in
Colombia, through the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and
beyond western Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convection previously associated with this trough has diminished
early this morning.

Hurricane Ian will move to 19.7N 83.0W this afternoon, 21.7N
83.9W Tue morning, 23.6N 84.1W Tue afternoon, and 25.3N 84.1W Wed
morning. Hurricane Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near
26.7N 83.7W Wed afternoon, then be near 27.7N 83.4W Thu morning.
Ian will change little in intensity as it moves near the Florida
Gulf coast early Fri. Hazardous conditions will prevail in the NW
Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and seas gradually
subside as Ian moves N of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian and on low pressure well west of the
Cabo Verde islands that has potential to develop into a tropical
depression this week.

Gaston became post-tropical overnight and no longer has an
convection associated with it. Additional information on this
system can be found in the High Seas Forecast at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

A stationary front has devolved into a surface trough that is
located from 31N58W to 27N70W. Convection previously associated
with the front has dissipated.

Aside from convection associated with the low pressure well W of
the Cabo Verde islands, scattered moderate convection has
developed within fresh trade winds from 10N to 18N between 50W and
60W.

W of 55W, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail, with some locally
fresh winds just N of the Greater Antilles. For areas between 35W
and 55W, gentle to moderate E winds prevail. E of 35W and S of
20N, winds are light to gentle. To the N, fresh to strong ENE
winds prevail N of the remnant circulation of Hermine, affecting
the Canary Islands.

N of 27N and E of 55W, 8 to 10 ft seas are common due to swell
mainly generated from previous cyclones Fiona, Gaston, and
Hermine.  Otherwise across the basin, seas average 4 to 7 ft.

Hurricane Ian will move to 19.7N 83.0W this afternoon, 21.7N
83.9W Tue morning, 23.6N 84.1W Tue afternoon, and 25.3N 84.1W Wed
morning. Hurricane Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near
26.7N 83.7W Wed afternoon, then be near 27.7N 83.4W Thu morning.
Ian will change little in intensity as it moves near the Florida
Gulf coast early Fri. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to
the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 75W as Ian
moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri night.

$$
KONARIK
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