[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260629 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Ian, at 26/0600 UTC, is near 17.7N
81.7W. Ian also is about 185 km/100 nm to the SSW of Grand
Cayman, and about 575 km/310 nm to the SE of the NW tip of Cuba.
Ian is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Tropical storm force
winds are within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within
30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant,  within 0 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant, and within 30 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 45
nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant, and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The
maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet. The wind speeds are
ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are
ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 15N to 19N between 77W and
83W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120
nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 180 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere within 300 nm of the center, mostly in the S
semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Post-Tropical Storm Gaston, at 26/0300 UTC, is
near 38.6N 38.2W. Gaston is moving WSW, or 245 degrees, 08
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45
knots. Precipitation: no organized deep convective precipitation
is present. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the Forecast/
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and
the High Seas Forecast at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php, for more details.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 15N36W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 16N
between 33W and 40W. The precipitation pattern is persistent but
disorganized. The environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some development. It is possible that a tropical
depression may form during the next few days, before upper level
winds become less favorable toward the end of the week.  The
system is expected to meander during the next day or two, and
then move slowly north-northwestward. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.
Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following
website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

No tropical waves are being analyzed at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N21W 09N24W 10N31W, to a 1009 mb
low pressure center that is near 15N36W, to 07N41W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N41W, to 09N50W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 16N between
33W and 40W, around the 1009 mb low pressure center. Please,
read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details about the
1009 mb low pressure center. Other precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area near
the monsoon trough/ITCZ, from 18N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Ian. The forecast is for Ian to impact the east
central Gulf of Mexico, starting late on Monday/early on Tuesday.

A middle level to upper level trough is in the western sections
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 91W westward.

Weak surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the northern one-fifth
of the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico consists
of weak and comparatively lower surface pressures. A surface
trough is along 24N83W, to Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to
30N77W in the Atlantic Ocean. The surface pressure gradient is
comparatively flat and weak. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 27N southward from 92W eastward...about 700 nm to the
northwest of T.S. Ian.

Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to
3 feet, are in the area.

Tropical Storm Ian is near 17.3N 81.4W 989 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts
to 65 kt. Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 82.3W
Mon morning and move to 20.8N 83.5W Mon evening. Hurricane Ian
will be near 22.7N 84.0W Tue morning, 24.7N 84.1W Tue evening,
and 26.2N 83.8W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian likely will be a
Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane near 27.6N 83.5W Wed evening.
Ian will change little in intensity as it moves through
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about Tropical Storm Ian, that currently is moving through the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh winds are from Hispaniola eastward. Gentle
wind speeds or slower are from 250 nm and more, away from Ian,
southward, to Colombia, Panama, and Central America. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet, mostly, to the east and to
the south of Ian.

The monsoon trough is along 09N76W in Colombia, through the
border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and beyond western
Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated to locally
strong, is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough.

Tropical Storm Ian is near 17.3N 81.4W 989 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts
to 65 kt. Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 82.3W
Mon morning and move to 20.8N 83.5W Mon evening. Hurricane Ian
will be near 22.7N 84.0W Tue morning, 24.7N 84.1W Tue evening,
and 26.2N 83.8W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian likely will be a
Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane near 27.6N 83.5W Wed evening.
Ian will change little in intensity as it moves through
the northeast Gulf of Mexico late Thu. Hazardous conditions will
prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds
and seas subside gradually, as Ian moves N of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
T.S. Ian and T.S. Gaston.

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N58W 27N70W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side
of the frontal boundary.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward between
44W and 60W.

An upper level trough is digging into the area that is from 20N
between 27W and 42W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 25W and 44W.

Some sea heights that range from 7 feet to 8 feet are from 28N
northward from 20W eastward.
Sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet are to the north
of the line 31N38W 27N44W 22N52W 31N60W. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong winds are within 380 nm to the north of the
remnant low pressure center of Hermine that is near 24N19W, in
the N quadrant. The wind speeds are mostly moderate, to some
fresh, from 12N northward, and from the line 10N54W 05N38W
southward. Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean.

Northerly swell will decay to less than 8 feet tonight. Tropical
Storm Ian is near 17.3N 81.4W 989 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at
11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 82.3W Mon morning
and move to 20.8N 83.5W Mon evening. Hurricane Ian will be near
22.7N 84.0W Tue morning, 24.7N 84.1W Tue evening, and 26.2N
83.8W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian likely will be a Category 2 or
Category 3 hurricane near 27.6N 83.5W Wed evening. Ian will
change little in intensity as it moves through the northeast
Gulf of Mexico late Thu. Strong southeasterly winds occurring
well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 75W
as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon into Fri
night.

$$
mt/sk
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