[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

IAN

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 16.2N 80.3W at 25/2100 UTC or
190 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft near in just
N of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
is noted from 12N to 24N between 73W and 85W. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman
Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and
early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed
by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast
to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.
Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

GASTON

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.1N 37.5W at 25/2100
UTC or 410 nm W of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving W
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Gradual
weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
forecast to become a post-tropical tonight and dissipate entirely
later this week. Swells generated by Gaston are expected to
affect portions of the Azores though tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
09N25W to 1009 mb low pres near 14N36W to 08N41W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 09N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 34W-39W, and from 10N
to 14N between 51W-62W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the central eastern
Gulf by the middle of the week.

High pressure ridging is noted across the Gulf, with a 1014 mb
high centered over southern Georgia. Light to gentle winds are
noted across the entire basin with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, conditions will begin to deteriorate across the
eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tue as Ian moves northward
from Cuba as a major hurricane. Residents along the Florida west
coast and Florida Panhandle need to monitor this system closely
and review your hurricane preparedness plan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical
Storm Ian moving across the basin.

Outside the main impacts of Ian, moderate to locally fresh E to
SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are present across the eastern basin.
Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist over the
northwestern basin, while light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas
prevail for the southwestern basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian has begun to turn NW today,
and is expected to intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian
will move to near 17.3N 81.5W tonight, reach near 19.2N 82.9W Mon
afternoon as a hurricane, then move over western Cuba Tue morning,
and reach near 23N 84.2W Tue afternoon, near 26.2N 84.4W Wed
afternoon, then continue northward Thu and inland across N Florida
late Thu through early Fri morning. Hazardous conditions will
prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and
seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Gaston.

Scattered showers are entering the western Atlantic over the
southern Bahamas related to the periphery of T.S. Ian. To the
east, a stationary front extends from 31N58W to 27N72W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front. Moderate northeasterly winds
are noted north of the stationary front with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are around 4-6 ft in this area. High pressure
extends across the central Atlantic with light to gentle winds.
Seas are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas near 31N. In the eastern
Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted off the African coast,
especially due to the influence of post-tropical cyclone Hermine.
Showers are noted across the Canary Islands and off the coast of
Morocco. Seas range from 5-9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell from Fiona will
decay below 8 ft to the S of 27N tonight. Tropical Storm Ian is
expected to intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian will
move to near 17.3N 81.5W tonight, reach near 19.2N 82.9W Mon
afternoon as a hurricane, then move over western Cuba Tue morning,
and reach near 23N 84.2W Tue afternoon, near 26.2N 84.4W Wed
afternoon, then continue northward Thu and inland across N Florida
late Thu through early Fri morning. Strong southeasterly winds
occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W
of 75W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon
through Fri.

$$
ERA
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